Prediction Analysis: Botafogo vs Fluminense
Botafogo vs Fluminense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-08-09
00:00
Botafogo
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Fluminense
Away
Prediction Summary
1
52%
X
24%
2
24%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Botafogo (Home)
Goals scored / match1.95
Goals conceded / match1.19
Over 2.5 rate38%
BTTS rate52%
Fluminense (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate42%
Team Form last 5 matches
Botafogo
WDWWD
Fluminense
DWWWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
58%
67%
+1.5
37%
38%
+2.5
5%
14%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
52%
BTTS
42%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Low.
Botafogo averages 1.95 goals scored at home, while Fluminense averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
52%
Draw
24%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
Head-to-Head last 5
Sep 2025
Botafogo(A)
0 - 2
Fluminense
Away
Apr 2025
Botafogo
2 - 0
Fluminense
Home
Sep 2024
Botafogo(A)
1 - 0
Fluminense
Home
Jun 2024
Botafogo
1 - 0
Fluminense
Home
Oct 2023
Botafogo(A)
2 - 0
Fluminense
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Botafogo won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Botafogo — unbeaten run (home)7
Botafogo — scoring streak (home)0
Fluminense — winless run (away)0
Fluminense — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Botafogo Win (1)52%
Draw (X)24%
Fluminense Win (2)24%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
58%
67%
+1.5
37%
38%
+2.5
5%
14%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
42%
33%
-1.5
63%
62%
-2.5
95%
86%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Botafogo vs Fluminense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Botafogo — scored (home)1.95
Botafogo — conceded (home)1.19
Fluminense — scored (away)1
Fluminense — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.81
Both Teams To Score
Yes55%
No45%
Rate per Team
Botafogo — BTTS matches (home)52%
Fluminense — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Botafogo (home)
Corners for5.6
Corners against3.8
Fluminense (away)
Corners for3.5
Corners against6.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Botafogo
8
4
10
10
8
Fluminense
13
7
10
9
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5
Yellow Cards per Team
Botafogo (home)
For2.3
Fluminense (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.19
Botafogo
Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.574%
Shots Over 13.560%
Expected shots15.30
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.559%
On Target Over 5.543%
Expected on target5.30
Fluminense
Shots Over 9.559%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.525%
Expected shots10.89
On Target Over 3.548%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.517%
Expected on target3.62
Shots per Game
Botafogo — total shots (home)16.4
Fluminense — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
Botafogo — on target (home)6.3
Fluminense — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Botafogo
Inside the box9.21
Outside the box5.11
Fluminense
Inside the box7.53
Outside the box4.74
Player Shots Botafogo
G. Justino
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
Cristian Medina
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%
Lucas Villalba
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%
Chris Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target15%
Player Shots Fluminense
K. Serna
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target9%
G. Cano
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target9%
A. Canobbio
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Acosta
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
John Kennedy
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo xG (home)1.32
Fluminense xG (away)1.12
Average Possession
51.76%
Possession
52.92%
Team Comparison Botafogo vs Fluminense
85.26%
Pass accuracy
84.87%
454.05
Passes per match
468.34
0.12
Goals prevented
-0.1
14.61
Fouls committed
12.84
2.47
Goalkeeper saves
2.51
1.36
Offsides
0.94
15.44
Tackles per match
14.87
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Botafogo vs Fluminense prediction and preview
Preview Botafogo vs Fluminense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights