Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Botafogo vs Vitoria

Botafogo vs Vitoria prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-07-17 00:30
Botafogo
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Vitoria
Away

Prediction Summary

1
67%
X
21%
2
12%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS No
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Botafogo (Home)

Goals scored / match2.05
Goals conceded / match1.26
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate53%

Vitoria (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Botafogo
WDDWW
Vitoria
WLWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 47%
68% +1.5 16%
42% +2.5 11%
16% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Medium.

Botafogo averages 2.05 goals scored at home, while Vitoria averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength
67%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
67%
Draw
21%
Away Win
12%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 Botafogo 0 - 0 Vitoria Draw
Nov 2025 Botafogo(A) 0 - 0 Vitoria Draw
Jul 2025 Botafogo 0 - 0 Vitoria Draw
Nov 2024 Botafogo 1 - 1 Vitoria Draw
Jul 2024 Botafogo(A) 1 - 0 Vitoria Home

In the last 5 meetings, Botafogo won 1, drew 4 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Botafogo — unbeaten run (home)5
Botafogo — scoring streak (home)5
Vitoria — winless run (away)1
Vitoria — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Botafogo Win (1)67%
Draw (X)21%
Vitoria Win (2)12%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 47%
68% +1.5 16%
42% +2.5 11%
16% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 53%
32% -1.5 84%
58% -2.5 89%
84% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Botafogo vs Vitoria — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Botafogo — scored (home)2.05
Botafogo — conceded (home)1.26
Vitoria — scored (away)0.74
Vitoria — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%
No57%

Rate per Team

Botafogo — BTTS matches (home)53%
Vitoria — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)47.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.566%
Under 7.534%
Over 8.555%
Under 8.545%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Botafogo (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against3.8

Vitoria (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Botafogo
12 8 12 8 4
Vitoria
9 10 12 5 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.589%
Under 2.511%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Botafogo (home)

For2.3

Vitoria (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Botafogo — total shots (home)16.4
Vitoria — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

Botafogo — on target (home)6.3
Vitoria — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Botafogo

Inside the box9.21
Outside the box5.11

Vitoria

Inside the box6.95
Outside the box4.61

Player Shots Botafogo

Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
Chris Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target15%
Arthur Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Savarino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%
Artur
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Vitoria

Wellington Rato
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Matheuzinho
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
Aitor Cantalapiedra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
Renato Kayzer
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target17%
Erick
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Botafogo xG (home)1.32
Vitoria xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

51.76% Possession 41.26%

Team Comparison Botafogo vs Vitoria

85.26% Pass accuracy 78.61%
454.05 Passes per match 324.47
0.12 Goals prevented -0.04
14.61 Fouls committed 14.61
2.47 Goalkeeper saves 3.92
1.36 Offsides 1.83
15.24 Tackles per match 14.87

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Botafogo vs Vitoria prediction analysis

Review Botafogo vs Vitoria with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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