Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Brentford vs Sunderland

Brentford vs Sunderland prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2026-01-07 19:30
Brentford
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Sunderland
Away

Prediction Summary

1
56%
X
26%
2
18%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Brentford (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate37%
BTTS rate58%

Sunderland (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Brentford
DDLWL
Sunderland
WWDDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 58%
58% +1.5 21%
37% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Brentford averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Sunderland averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
56%
Draw
26%
Away Win
18%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
42%

Head-to-Head last 2

Jan 2026 Brentford 3 - 0 Sunderland Home
Aug 2025 Brentford(A) 1 - 2 Sunderland Away

In the last 2 meetings, Brentford won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Brentford — unbeaten run (home)5
Brentford — scoring streak (home)2
Sunderland — winless run (away)0
Sunderland — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Brentford Win (1)56%
Draw (X)26%
Sunderland Win (2)18%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 58%
58% +1.5 21%
37% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 42%
42% -1.5 79%
63% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Brentford vs Sunderland — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Brentford — scored (home)1.74
Brentford — conceded (home)1.11
Sunderland — scored (away)0.89
Sunderland — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.3

Both Teams To Score

Yes42%
No58%

Rate per Team

Brentford — BTTS matches (home)58%
Sunderland — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.576%
Under 6.524%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Brentford (home)

Corners for4.4
Corners against4.6

Sunderland (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Brentford
15 8 12 13 16
Sunderland
9 9 13 5 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Brentford (home)

For1.6

Sunderland (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Brentford — total shots (home)12.0
Sunderland — total shots (away)8.8

Shots on Target

Brentford — on target (home)4.1
Sunderland — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Brentford

Inside the box8.05
Outside the box2.61

Sunderland

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box3.03

Player Shots Brentford

Thiago
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target34%
K. Schade
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
D. Ouattara
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target9%
M. Damsgaard
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target6%
K. Lewis-Potter
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Sunderland

B. Brobbey
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target10%
W. Isidor
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target6%
B. Traoré
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
H. Diarra
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target5%
N. Angulo
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Brentford xG (home)1.59
Sunderland xG (away)1.02

Average Possession

47.58% Possession 44.84%

Team Comparison Brentford vs Sunderland

78.55% Pass accuracy 78.45%
394.92 Passes per match 375.05
-0.09 Goals prevented -0.16
10.61 Fouls committed 10.71
2.89 Goalkeeper saves 3.13
1.61 Offsides 1.57
14.53 Tackles per match 15.39

League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Brentford vs Sunderland prediction analysis

Review Brentford vs Sunderland with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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