Prediction Analysis: Brighton vs Aston Villa
Brighton vs Aston Villa prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-08-23
13:00
Brighton
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Aston Villa
Away
Prediction Summary
1
45%
X
26%
2
29%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Brighton (Home)
Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%
Aston Villa (Away)
Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate63%
Team Form last 5 matches
Brighton
LLWLW
Aston Villa
WWDLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
68%
58%
+1.5
42%
21%
+2.5
11%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
58%
BTTS
63%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Low.
Brighton averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Aston Villa averages 1.26 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
45%
Draw
26%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Brighton(A)
0 - 1
Aston Villa
Away
Dec 2025
Brighton
3 - 4
Aston Villa
Away
Apr 2025
Brighton
0 - 3
Aston Villa
Away
Dec 2024
Brighton(A)
2 - 2
Aston Villa
Draw
May 2024
Brighton
1 - 0
Aston Villa
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Brighton won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Brighton — unbeaten run (home)0
Brighton — scoring streak (home)0
Aston Villa — winless run (away)0
Aston Villa — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Brighton Win (1)45%
Draw (X)26%
Aston Villa Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
68%
58%
+1.5
42%
21%
+2.5
11%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
32%
42%
-1.5
58%
79%
-2.5
89%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
Brighton vs Aston Villa — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Brighton — scored (home)1.58
Brighton — conceded (home)1.05
Aston Villa — scored (away)1.26
Aston Villa — conceded (away)1.42
Model expected combined goals2.66
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Brighton — BTTS matches (home)58%
Aston Villa — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)60.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Brighton (home)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.5
Aston Villa (away)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Brighton
11
12
8
15
3
Aston Villa
7
10
10
13
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Brighton (home)
For1.8
Aston Villa (away)
For1.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.559%
Under 22.541%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.31
Brighton
Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.40
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.538%
Expected on target4.98
Aston Villa
Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.91
On Target Over 3.552%
On Target Over 4.535%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.88
Shots per Game
Brighton — total shots (home)13.8
Aston Villa — total shots (away)11.7
Shots on Target
Brighton — on target (home)4.9
Aston Villa — on target (away)4.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Brighton
Inside the box8.66
Outside the box4.37
Aston Villa
Inside the box8.03
Outside the box4.68
Player Shots Brighton
D. Welbeck
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Hinshelwood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target11%
K. Mitoma
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target8%
P. Groß
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target5%
D. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots Aston Villa
O. Watkins
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target27%
M. Rogers
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target24%
D. Malen
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. McGinn
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target3%
E. Guessand
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Brighton xG (home)1.51
Aston Villa xG (away)1.27
Average Possession
54.11%
Possession
53.53%
Team Comparison Brighton vs Aston Villa
83.5%
Pass accuracy
84.76%
476.47
Passes per match
450.05
0.04
Goals prevented
-0.13
11.92
Fouls committed
9.79
2.79
Goalkeeper saves
3
1.68
Offsides
1.14
17.76
Tackles per match
15.42
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Brighton vs Aston Villa prediction analysis
Review Brighton vs Aston Villa with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights