Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bristol City vs Middlesbrough

Bristol City vs Middlesbrough prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-20 15:00
Bristol City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Middlesbrough
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
26%
2
39%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Bristol City (Home)

Goals scored / match1.43
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate39%

Middlesbrough (Away)

Goals scored / match1.56
Goals conceded / match1.28
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate64%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bristol City
WLDLD
Middlesbrough
LLDDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

70% +0.5 76%
43% +1.5 52%
17% +2.5 20%
9% +3.5 8%
4% +4.5 0%
39% BTTS 64%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Bristol City averages 1.43 goals scored at home, while Middlesbrough averages 1.56 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
26%
Away Win
39%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Bristol City(A) 1 - 1 Middlesbrough Draw
Dec 2025 Bristol City 2 - 0 Middlesbrough Home
Feb 2025 Bristol City 2 - 1 Middlesbrough Home
Oct 2024 Bristol City(A) 2 - 0 Middlesbrough Home
Feb 2024 Bristol City(A) 2 - 1 Middlesbrough Home

In the last 5 meetings, Bristol City won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Bristol City — unbeaten run (home)1
Bristol City — scoring streak (home)3
Middlesbrough — winless run (away)6
Middlesbrough — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bristol City Win (1)35%
Draw (X)26%
Middlesbrough Win (2)39%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

70% +0.5 76%
43% +1.5 52%
17% +2.5 20%
9% +3.5 8%
4% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

30% -0.5 24%
57% -1.5 48%
83% -2.5 80%
91% -3.5 92%
96% -4.5 100%

Bristol City vs Middlesbrough — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bristol City — scored (home)1.43
Bristol City — conceded (home)1.35
Middlesbrough — scored (away)1.56
Middlesbrough — conceded (away)1.28
Model expected combined goals2.64

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Bristol City — BTTS matches (home)39%
Middlesbrough — BTTS matches (away)64%
Combined (simple average)51.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.581%
Under 5.519%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.573%
Under 7.527%
Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bristol City (home)

Corners for4.7
Corners against4.9

Middlesbrough (away)

Corners for5.8
Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bristol City
9 12 10 11 17
Middlesbrough
9 9 12 16 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Bristol City (home)

For1.6

Middlesbrough (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Bristol City — total shots (home)12.7
Middlesbrough — total shots (away)15.2

Shots on Target

Bristol City — on target (home)4.0
Middlesbrough — on target (away)4.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bristol City

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.78

Middlesbrough

Inside the box10.41
Outside the box5.82

Player Shots Bristol City

A. Mehmeti
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Twine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
E. Riis
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Bell
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
T. Horvat
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Middlesbrough

M. Whittaker
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target21%
Leo Castledine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
T. Conway
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Strelec
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target11%
H. Hackney
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bristol City xG (home)1.21
Middlesbrough xG (away)1.5

Average Possession

49.28% Possession 59.43%

Team Comparison Bristol City vs Middlesbrough

77.85% Pass accuracy 84.08%
424.78 Passes per match 516.84
-0.04 Goals prevented -0.17
9.54 Fouls committed 9.33
3.23 Goalkeeper saves 2.22
2.02 Offsides 1.89
14.8 Tackles per match 15.45

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bristol City vs Middlesbrough prediction analysis

Review Bristol City vs Middlesbrough with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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