Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bristol City vs Portsmouth

Bristol City vs Portsmouth prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2026-01-01 15:00
Bristol City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Portsmouth
Away

Prediction Summary

1
53%
X
26%
2
22%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Bristol City (Home)

Goals scored / match1.43
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate39%

Portsmouth (Away)

Goals scored / match1.04
Goals conceded / match1.78
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate61%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bristol City
WLDLD
Portsmouth
DWLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

70% +0.5 74%
43% +1.5 17%
17% +2.5 13%
9% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%
39% BTTS 61%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bristol City averages 1.43 goals scored at home, while Portsmouth averages 1.04 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
53%
Draw
26%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Bristol City 5 - 0 Portsmouth Home
Nov 2025 Bristol City(A) 1 - 0 Portsmouth Home
Dec 2024 Bristol City 3 - 0 Portsmouth Home
Dec 2024 Bristol City(A) 0 - 3 Portsmouth Away
Jan 2021 Bristol City 2 - 1 Portsmouth Home

In the last 5 meetings, Bristol City won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Bristol City — unbeaten run (home)1
Bristol City — scoring streak (home)3
Portsmouth — winless run (away)0
Portsmouth — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bristol City Win (1)53%
Draw (X)26%
Portsmouth Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

70% +0.5 74%
43% +1.5 17%
17% +2.5 13%
9% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

30% -0.5 26%
57% -1.5 83%
83% -2.5 87%
91% -3.5 100%
96% -4.5 100%

Bristol City vs Portsmouth — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bristol City — scored (home)1.43
Bristol City — conceded (home)1.35
Portsmouth — scored (away)1.04
Portsmouth — conceded (away)1.78
Model expected combined goals2.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

Bristol City — BTTS matches (home)39%
Portsmouth — BTTS matches (away)61%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.579%
Under 5.521%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bristol City (home)

Corners for4.7
Corners against4.9

Portsmouth (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bristol City
9 12 10 11 17
Portsmouth
10 12 3 9 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Bristol City (home)

For1.6

Portsmouth (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Bristol City — total shots (home)12.7
Portsmouth — total shots (away)9.0

Shots on Target

Bristol City — on target (home)4.0
Portsmouth — on target (away)3.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bristol City

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.78

Portsmouth

Inside the box7.93
Outside the box4.26

Player Shots Bristol City

A. Mehmeti
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Twine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
E. Riis
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Bell
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
T. Horvat
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Portsmouth

J. Murphy
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target6%
C. Lang
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Kirk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Bianchini
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Alli
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bristol City xG (home)1.21
Portsmouth xG (away)1.11

Average Possession

49.28% Possession 50.43%

Team Comparison Bristol City vs Portsmouth

77.85% Pass accuracy 73.96%
424.78 Passes per match 370.83
-0.04 Goals prevented -0.09
9.54 Fouls committed 10.15
3.23 Goalkeeper saves 2.6
2.02 Offsides 1.77
14.8 Tackles per match 13.7

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bristol City vs Portsmouth prediction analysis

Review Bristol City vs Portsmouth with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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