Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bristol City vs QPR

Bristol City vs QPR prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-10-04 14:00
Bristol City
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
70%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
QPR
Away

Prediction Summary

1
52%
X
21%
2
27%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Yes
68%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Bristol City (Home)

Goals scored / match1.43
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate39%

QPR (Away)

Goals scored / match0.91
Goals conceded / match1.57
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bristol City
WLDLD
QPR
LLLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

70% +0.5 61%
43% +1.5 17%
17% +2.5 13%
9% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%
39% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 70%. Model confidence is High.

Bristol City averages 1.43 goals scored at home, while QPR averages 0.91 goals scored away.

Model Strength
70%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
52%
Draw
21%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Yes
68%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Bristol City(A) 0 - 0 QPR Draw
Oct 2025 Bristol City 1 - 2 QPR Away
Apr 2025 Bristol City(A) 1 - 1 QPR Draw
Dec 2024 Bristol City 1 - 1 QPR Draw
Feb 2024 Bristol City 0 - 1 QPR Away

In the last 5 meetings, Bristol City won 0, drew 3 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Bristol City — unbeaten run (home)1
Bristol City — scoring streak (home)3
QPR — winless run (away)3
QPR — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bristol City Win (1)52%
Draw (X)21%
QPR Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

70% +0.5 61%
43% +1.5 17%
17% +2.5 13%
9% +3.5 0%
4% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

30% -0.5 39%
57% -1.5 83%
83% -2.5 87%
91% -3.5 100%
96% -4.5 100%

Bristol City vs QPR — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bristol City — scored (home)1.43
Bristol City — conceded (home)1.35
QPR — scored (away)0.91
QPR — conceded (away)1.57
Model expected combined goals3.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes68%
No32%

Rate per Team

Bristol City — BTTS matches (home)39%
QPR — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)45.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.576%
Under 6.524%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bristol City (home)

Corners for4.7
Corners against4.9

QPR (away)

Corners for4.3
Corners against6.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bristol City
9 12 10 11 17
QPR
9 16 9 16 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Bristol City (home)

For1.6

QPR (away)

For1.7

Shots per Game

Bristol City — total shots (home)12.7
QPR — total shots (away)11.1

Shots on Target

Bristol City — on target (home)4.0
QPR — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bristol City

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.78

QPR

Inside the box8
Outside the box4.72

Player Shots Bristol City

A. Mehmeti
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target32%
S. Twine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
E. Riis
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Bell
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
T. Horvat
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots QPR

R. Kone
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target21%
I. Chair
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Burrell
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target20%
P. Smyth
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target14%
D. Bennie
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bristol City xG (home)1.21
QPR xG (away)1.19

Average Possession

49.28% Possession 45.98%

Team Comparison Bristol City vs QPR

77.85% Pass accuracy 75.46%
424.78 Passes per match 368.37
-0.04 Goals prevented -0.19
9.54 Fouls committed 11.22
3.23 Goalkeeper saves 2.58
2.02 Offsides 1.93
14.8 Tackles per match 14.52

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bristol City vs QPR prediction analysis

Review Bristol City vs QPR with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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