Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bucaramanga vs Alianza Valledupar

Bucaramanga vs Alianza Valledupar prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-09-06 20:30
Bucaramanga
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Alianza Valledupar
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
26%
2
24%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Bucaramanga (Home)

Goals scored / match1.43
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate35%

Alianza Valledupar (Away)

Goals scored / match0.9
Goals conceded / match1.45
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate40%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bucaramanga
DDWLD
Alianza Valledupar
LWWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 55%
48% +1.5 25%
13% +2.5 10%
9% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
35% BTTS 40%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bucaramanga averages 1.43 goals scored at home, while Alianza Valledupar averages 0.9 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
26%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 4

Sep 2025 Bucaramanga 3 - 1 Alianza Valledupar Home
Aug 2025 Bucaramanga(A) 3 - 1 Alianza Valledupar Home
Mar 2025 Bucaramanga(A) 2 - 1 Alianza Valledupar Home
Feb 2025 Bucaramanga 0 - 0 Alianza Valledupar Draw

In the last 4 meetings, Bucaramanga won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Bucaramanga — unbeaten run (home)1
Bucaramanga — scoring streak (home)0
Alianza Valledupar — winless run (away)1
Alianza Valledupar — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bucaramanga Win (1)50%
Draw (X)26%
Alianza Valledupar Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 55%
48% +1.5 25%
13% +2.5 10%
9% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 45%
52% -1.5 75%
87% -2.5 90%
91% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Bucaramanga vs Alianza Valledupar — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bucaramanga — scored (home)1.43
Bucaramanga — conceded (home)0.78
Alianza Valledupar — scored (away)0.9
Alianza Valledupar — conceded (away)1.45
Model expected combined goals2.46

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Bucaramanga — BTTS matches (home)35%
Alianza Valledupar — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)37.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.565%
Under 7.535%
Over 8.549%
Under 8.551%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.524%
Under 10.576%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bucaramanga (home)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.6

Alianza Valledupar (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bucaramanga
8 11 11 8 7
Alianza Valledupar
16 11 9 10 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Bucaramanga (home)

For3.3

Alianza Valledupar (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Bucaramanga — total shots (home)14.5
Alianza Valledupar — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Bucaramanga — on target (home)5.5
Alianza Valledupar — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bucaramanga

Inside the box7.09
Outside the box5.84

Alianza Valledupar

Inside the box6.4
Outside the box5.8

Player Shots Bucaramanga

L. Pons
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Sambueza
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target16%
F. Castañeda
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Gil
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target5%
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Alianza Valledupar

C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target53%
F. Pardo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Martinez
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bucaramanga xG (home)1.14
Alianza Valledupar xG (away)1.2

Average Possession

53.98% Possession 49.88%

Team Comparison Bucaramanga vs Alianza Valledupar

80.57% Pass accuracy 78.53%
388.5 Passes per match 349.75
0 Goals prevented 0
11.86 Fouls committed 12
2.2 Goalkeeper saves 2.55
1.72 Offsides 1.97
13.23 Tackles per match 12.03

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bucaramanga vs Alianza Valledupar prediction analysis

Review Bucaramanga vs Alianza Valledupar with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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