Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bucaramanga vs Envigado

Bucaramanga vs Envigado prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-04-17 21:00
Bucaramanga
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
37%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Envigado
Away

Prediction Summary

1
39%
X
29%
2
31%
Under 2.5
63%
BTTS No
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Bucaramanga (Home)

Goals scored / match1.43
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate35%

Envigado (Away)

Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.15
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bucaramanga
DDWLD
Envigado
WDLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 45%
48% +1.5 30%
13% +2.5 15%
9% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
35% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bucaramanga averages 1.43 goals scored at home, while Envigado averages 0.95 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
39%
Draw
29%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS Yes
43%

Head-to-Head last 2

Oct 2025 Bucaramanga(A) 2 - 1 Envigado Home
Apr 2025 Bucaramanga 1 - 0 Envigado Home

In the last 2 meetings, Bucaramanga won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Bucaramanga — unbeaten run (home)1
Bucaramanga — scoring streak (home)0
Envigado — winless run (away)0
Envigado — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bucaramanga Win (1)39%
Draw (X)29%
Envigado Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 45%
48% +1.5 30%
13% +2.5 15%
9% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 55%
52% -1.5 70%
87% -2.5 85%
91% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Bucaramanga vs Envigado — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bucaramanga — scored (home)1.43
Bucaramanga — conceded (home)0.78
Envigado — scored (away)0.95
Envigado — conceded (away)1.15
Model expected combined goals2.16

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%
No57%

Rate per Team

Bucaramanga — BTTS matches (home)35%
Envigado — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)35%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.593%
Under 4.57%
Over 5.593%
Under 5.57%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.570%
Under 7.530%
Over 8.551%
Under 8.549%
Over 9.538%
Under 9.562%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bucaramanga (home)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.6

Envigado (away)

Corners for2.8
Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bucaramanga
8 11 11 8 7
Envigado
3 4 12 6 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.598%
Under 2.52%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Bucaramanga (home)

For3.3

Envigado (away)

For4.2

Shots per Game

Bucaramanga — total shots (home)14.5
Envigado — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Bucaramanga — on target (home)5.5
Envigado — on target (away)2.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bucaramanga

Inside the box7.09
Outside the box5.84

Envigado

Inside the box5.23
Outside the box5.13

Player Shots Bucaramanga

L. Pons
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Sambueza
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target16%
F. Castañeda
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Gil
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target5%
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Envigado

D. Pabón
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target50%
D. Arcila
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target19%
E. López
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
B. Garcés
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target8%
W. Hurtado
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target5%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bucaramanga xG (home)1.14
Envigado xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

53.98% Possession 43.18%

Team Comparison Bucaramanga vs Envigado

80.57% Pass accuracy 74.7%
388.5 Passes per match 285.13
0 Goals prevented 0
11.86 Fouls committed 14.18
2.2 Goalkeeper saves 2.9
1.72 Offsides 1.74
13.23 Tackles per match 11.08

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bucaramanga vs Envigado prediction analysis

Review Bucaramanga vs Envigado with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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