Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-05-10 01:30
Bucaramanga
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
22%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Independiente Medellin
Away

Prediction Summary

1
29%
X
35%
2
36%
Under 2.5
78%
BTTS No
69%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Bucaramanga (Home)

Goals scored / match1.43
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate35%

Independiente Medellin (Away)

Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bucaramanga
DDWLD
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 70%
48% +1.5 33%
13% +2.5 19%
9% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%
35% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 22%. Model confidence is High.

Bucaramanga averages 1.43 goals scored at home, while Independiente Medellin averages 1.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
78%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
29%
Draw
35%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
22%
BTTS Yes
31%

Head-to-Head last 2

Oct 2025 Bucaramanga(A) 0 - 3 Independiente Medellin Away
May 2025 Bucaramanga 2 - 0 Independiente Medellin Home

In the last 2 meetings, Bucaramanga won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Bucaramanga — unbeaten run (home)1
Bucaramanga — scoring streak (home)0
Independiente Medellin — winless run (away)3
Independiente Medellin — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bucaramanga Win (1)29%
Draw (X)35%
Independiente Medellin Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 70%
48% +1.5 33%
13% +2.5 19%
9% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 30%
52% -1.5 67%
87% -2.5 81%
91% -3.5 93%
100% -4.5 96%

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bucaramanga — scored (home)1.43
Bucaramanga — conceded (home)0.78
Independiente Medellin — scored (away)1.33
Independiente Medellin — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals1.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes31%
No69%

Rate per Team

Bucaramanga — BTTS matches (home)35%
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)43.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.593%
Under 4.57%
Over 5.587%
Under 5.513%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.567%
Under 7.533%
Over 8.545%
Under 8.555%
Over 9.533%
Under 9.567%
Over 10.522%
Under 10.578%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bucaramanga (home)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.6

Independiente Medellin (away)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bucaramanga
8 11 11 8 7
Independiente Medellin
12 7 4 3 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.593%
Under 2.57%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Bucaramanga (home)

For3.3

Independiente Medellin (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Bucaramanga — total shots (home)14.5
Independiente Medellin — total shots (away)14.1

Shots on Target

Bucaramanga — on target (home)5.5
Independiente Medellin — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bucaramanga

Inside the box7.09
Outside the box5.84

Independiente Medellin

Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04

Player Shots Bucaramanga

L. Pons
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Sambueza
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target16%
F. Castañeda
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Gil
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target5%
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Independiente Medellin

B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bucaramanga xG (home)1.14
Independiente Medellin xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

53.98% Possession 56.72%

Team Comparison Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin

80.57% Pass accuracy 80.91%
388.5 Passes per match 412.61
0 Goals prevented 0
11.86 Fouls committed 11.06
2.2 Goalkeeper saves 2.41
1.72 Offsides 1.26
13.23 Tackles per match 10.46

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin prediction analysis

Review Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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