Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Bucaramanga vs Santa Fe

Bucaramanga vs Santa Fe prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-11-19 23:30
Bucaramanga
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Santa Fe
Away

Prediction Summary

1
43%
X
27%
2
29%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Bucaramanga (Home)

Goals scored / match1.43
Goals conceded / match0.78
Over 2.5 rate13%
BTTS rate35%

Santa Fe (Away)

Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

Bucaramanga
DDWLD
Santa Fe
DWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 70%
48% +1.5 33%
13% +2.5 4%
9% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 4%
35% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Bucaramanga averages 1.43 goals scored at home, while Santa Fe averages 1.22 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
43%
Draw
27%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 4

Dec 2025 Bucaramanga(A) 0 - 0 Santa Fe Draw
Nov 2025 Bucaramanga 1 - 0 Santa Fe Home
Aug 2025 Bucaramanga 2 - 1 Santa Fe Home
Mar 2025 Bucaramanga(A) 1 - 1 Santa Fe Draw

In the last 4 meetings, Bucaramanga won 2, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Bucaramanga — unbeaten run (home)1
Bucaramanga — scoring streak (home)0
Santa Fe — winless run (away)0
Santa Fe — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Bucaramanga Win (1)43%
Draw (X)27%
Santa Fe Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 70%
48% +1.5 33%
13% +2.5 4%
9% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 30%
52% -1.5 67%
87% -2.5 96%
91% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 96%

Bucaramanga vs Santa Fe — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Bucaramanga — scored (home)1.43
Bucaramanga — conceded (home)0.78
Santa Fe — scored (away)1.22
Santa Fe — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Bucaramanga — BTTS matches (home)35%
Santa Fe — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)43.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.593%
Under 5.57%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.554%
Under 8.546%
Over 9.542%
Under 9.558%
Over 10.525%
Under 10.575%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Bucaramanga (home)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.6

Santa Fe (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Bucaramanga
8 11 11 8 7
Santa Fe
6 8 8 12 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.596%
Under 2.54%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Bucaramanga (home)

For3.3

Santa Fe (away)

For3.4

Shots per Game

Bucaramanga — total shots (home)14.5
Santa Fe — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Bucaramanga — on target (home)5.5
Santa Fe — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Bucaramanga

Inside the box7.09
Outside the box5.84

Santa Fe

Inside the box7.04
Outside the box5.44

Player Shots Bucaramanga

L. Pons
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Sambueza
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target16%
F. Castañeda
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Gil
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target5%
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Santa Fe

H. Rodallega
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target37%
H. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
Y. Perlaza
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
O. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target5%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bucaramanga xG (home)1.14
Santa Fe xG (away)1.08

Average Possession

53.98% Possession 48.19%

Team Comparison Bucaramanga vs Santa Fe

80.57% Pass accuracy 77.09%
388.5 Passes per match 334.04
0 Goals prevented 0
11.86 Fouls committed 11.52
2.2 Goalkeeper saves 3.46
1.72 Offsides 1.38
13.23 Tackles per match 10.54

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Bucaramanga vs Santa Fe prediction analysis

Review Bucaramanga vs Santa Fe with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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