Prediction Analysis: Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2025-09-20
14:00
Burnley
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
51%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Nottingham Forest
Away
Prediction Summary
1
31%
X
25%
2
44%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Burnley (Home)
Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate42%
Nottingham Forest (Away)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Burnley
DLDLL
Nottingham Forest
DLDWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
53%
+0.5
74%
37%
+1.5
42%
5%
+2.5
21%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
42%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Low.
Burnley averages 0.95 goals scored at home, while Nottingham Forest averages 1.47 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
31%
Draw
25%
Away Win
44%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Burnley(A)
1 - 4
Nottingham Forest
Away
Sep 2025
Burnley
1 - 1
Nottingham Forest
Draw
May 2024
Burnley
1 - 2
Nottingham Forest
Away
Sep 2023
Burnley(A)
1 - 1
Nottingham Forest
Draw
Aug 2023
Burnley(A)
1 - 0
Nottingham Forest
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Burnley won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Burnley — unbeaten run (home)2
Burnley — scoring streak (home)2
Nottingham Forest — winless run (away)1
Nottingham Forest — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Burnley Win (1)31%
Draw (X)25%
Nottingham Forest Win (2)44%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
53%
+0.5
74%
37%
+1.5
42%
5%
+2.5
21%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
47%
-0.5
26%
63%
-1.5
58%
95%
-2.5
79%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
95%
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Burnley — scored (home)0.95
Burnley — conceded (home)1.53
Nottingham Forest — scored (away)1.47
Nottingham Forest — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.71
Both Teams To Score
Yes55%
No45%
Rate per Team
Burnley — BTTS matches (home)42%
Nottingham Forest — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)44.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90
Per-Team Corners own matches
Burnley (home)
Corners for3.7
Corners against5.9
Nottingham Forest (away)
Corners for4.4
Corners against5.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Burnley
14
5
10
6
14
Nottingham Forest
9
11
3
13
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Burnley (home)
For1.5
Nottingham Forest (away)
For1.9
Shots per Game
Burnley — total shots (home)10.8
Nottingham Forest — total shots (away)10.1
Shots on Target
Burnley — on target (home)3.3
Nottingham Forest — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Burnley
Inside the box5.68
Outside the box3.66
Nottingham Forest
Inside the box7.79
Outside the box4.79
Player Shots Burnley
Z. Flemming
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Anthony
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target8%
J. Cullen
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target6%
L. Tchaouna
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target3%
M. Edwards
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target4%
Player Shots Nottingham Forest
M. Gibbs-White
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target16%
C. Wood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%
N. Williams
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target14%
T. Awoniyi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley xG (home)0.86
Nottingham Forest xG (away)1.21
Average Possession
42.29%
Possession
46.76%
Team Comparison Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
77.66%
Pass accuracy
81%
384.82
Passes per match
408.34
-0.28
Goals prevented
-0.01
10.39
Fouls committed
10.89
3.73
Goalkeeper saves
2.87
1.5
Offsides
1.69
16.76
Tackles per match
16.95
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest prediction analysis
Review Burnley vs Nottingham Forest with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights