Prediction Analysis: Cagliari vs Lecce
Cagliari vs Lecce prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-09-06
16:30
Cagliari
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
39%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Lecce
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
28%
2
29%
+2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS
45%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Cagliari (Home)
Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate37%
Lecce (Away)
Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate37%
Team Form last 5 matches
Cagliari
WWLDW
Lecce
WWLWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
53%
32%
+1.5
21%
16%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
37%
BTTS
37%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 39%. Model confidence is Medium.
Cagliari averages 1.16 goals scored at home, while Lecce averages 0.79 goals scored away.
Model Strength
61%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
28%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Cagliari
0 - 2
Lecce
Away
Sep 2025
Cagliari(A)
2 - 1
Lecce
Home
Jan 2025
Cagliari
4 - 1
Lecce
Home
Aug 2024
Cagliari(A)
0 - 1
Lecce
Away
May 2024
Cagliari
1 - 1
Lecce
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Cagliari won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Cagliari — unbeaten run (home)1
Cagliari — scoring streak (home)1
Lecce — winless run (away)0
Lecce — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Cagliari Win (1)42%
Draw (X)28%
Lecce Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
53%
32%
+1.5
21%
16%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
47%
68%
-1.5
79%
84%
-2.5
95%
95%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Cagliari vs Lecce — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Cagliari — scored (home)1.16
Cagliari — conceded (home)1.21
Lecce — scored (away)0.79
Lecce — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.26
Both Teams To Score
Yes45%
No55%
Rate per Team
Cagliari — BTTS matches (home)37%
Lecce — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)37%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Cagliari (home)
Corners for4.2
Corners against5.1
Lecce (away)
Corners for4.4
Corners against6.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Cagliari
10
9
12
6
10
Lecce
6
7
8
10
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.589%
Under 0.511%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.3
Yellow Cards per Team
Cagliari (home)
For2.0
Lecce (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.555%
Under 22.545%
Over 25.541%
Under 25.559%
Expected total shots24.35
Cagliari
Shots Over 9.576%
Shots Over 11.561%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.45
On Target Over 3.560%
On Target Over 4.543%
On Target Over 5.528%
Expected on target4.33
Lecce
Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.90
On Target Over 3.544%
On Target Over 4.527%
On Target Over 5.516%
Expected on target3.45
Shots per Game
Cagliari — total shots (home)10.7
Lecce — total shots (away)9.0
Shots on Target
Cagliari — on target (home)3.4
Lecce — on target (away)2.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Cagliari
Inside the box6.71
Outside the box4.21
Lecce
Inside the box5.68
Outside the box4.13
Player Shots Cagliari
Zito Luvumbo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Belotti
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Felici
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
S. Esposito
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
G. Borrelli
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Lecce
W. Cheddira
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Banda
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Berisha
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Kaba
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target7%
N. Štulić
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Cagliari xG (home)1.01
Lecce xG (away)0.82
Average Possession
45.58%
Possession
41.61%
Team Comparison Cagliari vs Lecce
80.03%
Pass accuracy
74.34%
394.18
Passes per match
321.13
-0.02
Goals prevented
0.17
13.79
Fouls committed
12.63
3.21
Goalkeeper saves
2.89
1.74
Offsides
1.35
16.05
Tackles per match
17.68
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Cagliari vs Lecce prediction analysis
Review Cagliari vs Lecce with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights