Prediction Analysis: Carrarese vs Mantova
Carrarese vs Mantova prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie B
2026-08-22
13:00
Carrarese
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Mantova
Away
Prediction Summary
1
49%
X
27%
2
24%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Carrarese (Home)
Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate37%
BTTS rate32%
Mantova (Away)
Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate37%
Team Form last 5 matches
Carrarese
LDLDL
Mantova
LWWLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
53%
+0.5
53%
47%
+1.5
32%
37%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
32%
BTTS
37%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.
Carrarese averages 1.37 goals scored at home, while Mantova averages 0.89 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
49%
Draw
27%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
Head-to-Head last 4
Mar 2026
Carrarese(A)
1 - 1
Mantova
Draw
Dec 2025
Carrarese
0 - 0
Mantova
Draw
May 2025
Carrarese(A)
1 - 2
Mantova
Away
Oct 2024
Carrarese
1 - 1
Mantova
Draw
In the last 4 meetings, Carrarese won 0, drew 3 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Carrarese — unbeaten run (home)4
Carrarese — scoring streak (home)0
Mantova — winless run (away)1
Mantova — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Carrarese Win (1)49%
Draw (X)27%
Mantova Win (2)24%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
53%
+0.5
53%
47%
+1.5
32%
37%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
47%
-0.5
47%
53%
-1.5
68%
63%
-2.5
95%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Carrarese vs Mantova — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Carrarese — scored (home)1.37
Carrarese — conceded (home)0.89
Mantova — scored (away)0.89
Mantova — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.32
Both Teams To Score
Yes45%
No55%
Rate per Team
Carrarese — BTTS matches (home)32%
Mantova — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)34.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Carrarese (home)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.2
Mantova (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against6.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Carrarese
12
11
16
14
10
Mantova
6
12
4
7
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Carrarese (home)
For1.9
Mantova (away)
For2.4
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.38
Carrarese
Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.566%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.13
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.64
Mantova
Shots Over 9.570%
Shots Over 11.552%
Shots Over 13.536%
Expected shots12.25
On Target Over 3.548%
On Target Over 4.531%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.64
Shots per Game
Carrarese — total shots (home)14.5
Mantova — total shots (away)12.2
Shots on Target
Carrarese — on target (home)4.4
Mantova — on target (away)4.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Carrarese
Inside the box8.24
Outside the box5.08
Mantova
Inside the box7.92
Outside the box6.16
Player Shots Carrarese
D. Bouah
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
K. Bozhanaj
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target8%
F. Melegoni
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target4%
F. Abiuso
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target14%
M. Cicconi
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target5%
Player Shots Mantova
L. Mancuso
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target20%
T. Marras
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target20%
N. Bonfanti
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
A. Meroni
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
F. Paoletti
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target8%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Carrarese xG (home)1.3
Mantova xG (away)1.38
Average Possession
50.58%
Possession
57.13%
Team Comparison Carrarese vs Mantova
79.66%
Pass accuracy
82.84%
398.97
Passes per match
466.29
0.05
Goals prevented
-0.3
13.13
Fouls committed
14.89
2.47
Goalkeeper saves
2.87
1.11
Offsides
1.78
14.55
Tackles per match
12.71
League average xG this season is 1.36 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Carrarese vs Mantova prediction analysis
Review Carrarese vs Mantova with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie B.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie B
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights