What markets are included in the Casa Pia vs Arouca prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Casa Pia vs Arouca prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Casa Pia vs Arouca

Casa Pia vs Arouca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-12-20 20:15

Casa Pia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

40%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Arouca

Away

Prediction Summary

54%

26%

20%

Under 2.5

60%

BTTS No

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Casa Pia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.29

Goals conceded / match1.12

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate65%

Arouca (Away)

Goals scored / match1.12

Goals conceded / match1.76

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate65%

Team Form last 5 matches

Casa Pia

LWDLD

Arouca

WDDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

82% +0.5 76%

29% +1.5 29%

18% +2.5 6%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 65%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Casa Pia averages 1.29 goals scored at home, while Arouca averages 1.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength

60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

54%

Draw

26%

Away Win

20%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Yes

42%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Casa Pia 3 - 2 Arouca Home

Sep 2025 Casa Pia(A) 2 - 0 Arouca Home

May 2025 Casa Pia(A) 0 - 0 Arouca Draw

Dec 2024 Casa Pia 3 - 1 Arouca Home

Feb 2024 Casa Pia 1 - 0 Arouca Home

In the last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Casa Pia — unbeaten run (home)1

Casa Pia — scoring streak (home)2

Arouca — winless run (away)4

Arouca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Casa Pia Win (1)54%

Draw (X)26%

Arouca Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

82% +0.5 76%

29% +1.5 29%

18% +2.5 6%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

18% -0.5 24%

71% -1.5 71%

82% -2.5 94%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Casa Pia vs Arouca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Casa Pia — scored (home)1.29

Casa Pia — conceded (home)1.12

Arouca — scored (away)1.12

Arouca — conceded (away)1.76

Model expected combined goals2.29

Both Teams To Score

Yes42%

No58%

Rate per Team

Casa Pia — BTTS matches (home)65%

Arouca — BTTS matches (away)65%

Combined (simple average)65%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.594%

Under 5.56%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.541%

Under 9.559%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Casa Pia (home)

Corners for4.5

Corners against4.5

Arouca (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Casa Pia

7 8 5 9 17

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.597%

Under 1.53%

Over 2.588%

Under 2.512%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Casa Pia (home)

For2.8

Arouca (away)

For2.9

Shots per Game

Casa Pia — total shots (home)10.6

Arouca — total shots (away)11.8

Shots on Target

Casa Pia — on target (home)3.2

Arouca — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.59

Outside the box3.76

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Player Shots Casa Pia

Max Svensson

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

Nuno Moreira

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target19%

Henrique Pereira

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target4%

Cassiano

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target12%

Leonardo Lelo

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target19%

+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Casa Pia xG (home)0.9

Arouca xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

46.65% Possession 52.59%

Team Comparison Casa Pia vs Arouca

76.68% Pass accuracy 80.94%

363.74 Passes per match 421.68

0.09 Goals prevented -0.03

14.82 Fouls committed 14.65

3.64 Goalkeeper saves 2.82

1.32 Offsides 1.88

14.71 Tackles per match 16.32

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Casa Pia vs Arouca prediction analysis

Review Casa Pia vs Arouca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights