What markets are included in the Casa Pia vs Benfica prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Casa Pia vs Benfica prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Casa Pia vs Benfica

Casa Pia vs Benfica prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2026-08-16 19:30

Casa Pia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

48%

Confidence

Medium

Score

0-1

Benfica

Away

Prediction Summary

20%

24%

56%

Under 2.5

52%

BTTS No

51%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Casa Pia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.11

Goals conceded / match1.44

Over 2.5 rate17%

BTTS rate56%

Benfica (Away)

Goals scored / match1.94

Goals conceded / match0.71

Over 2.5 rate24%

BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Casa Pia

WDDWL

Benfica

WDDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

61% +0.5 88%

33% +1.5 76%

17% +2.5 24%

0% +3.5 6%

0% +4.5 0%

56% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Medium.

Casa Pia averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while Benfica averages 1.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

20%

Draw

24%

Away Win

56%

Over 2.5

48%

BTTS Yes

49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Casa Pia 1 - 1 Benfica Draw

Nov 2025 Casa Pia(A) 2 - 2 Benfica Draw

Jan 2025 Casa Pia 3 - 1 Benfica Home

Aug 2024 Casa Pia(A) 0 - 3 Benfica Away

Mar 2024 Casa Pia 0 - 1 Benfica Away

In the last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Casa Pia — unbeaten run (home)2

Casa Pia — scoring streak (home)2

Benfica — winless run (away)0

Benfica — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Casa Pia Win (1)20%

Draw (X)24%

Benfica Win (2)56%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

61% +0.5 88%

33% +1.5 76%

17% +2.5 24%

0% +3.5 6%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

39% -0.5 12%

67% -1.5 24%

83% -2.5 76%

100% -3.5 94%

100% -4.5 100%

Casa Pia vs Benfica — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Casa Pia — scored (home)1.11

Casa Pia — conceded (home)1.44

Benfica — scored (away)1.94

Benfica — conceded (away)0.71

Model expected combined goals2.6

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%

No51%

Rate per Team

Casa Pia — BTTS matches (home)56%

Benfica — BTTS matches (away)59%

Combined (simple average)57.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%

Under 8.543%

Over 9.548%

Under 9.552%

Over 10.538%

Under 10.562%

Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Casa Pia (home)

Corners for3.7

Corners against5.8

Benfica (away)

Corners for6.9

Corners against3.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Casa Pia

9 10 9 8 15

Benfica

11 11 10 10 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.586%

Under 2.514%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Casa Pia (home)

For3.0

Benfica (away)

For2.2

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.568%

Under 19.532%

Over 22.554%

Under 22.546%

Over 25.541%

Under 25.559%

Expected total shots24.27

Casa Pia

Shots Over 9.558%

Shots Over 11.541%

Shots Over 13.527%

Expected shots10.95

On Target Over 3.547%

On Target Over 4.531%

On Target Over 5.518%

Expected on target3.62

Benfica

Shots Over 9.574%

Shots Over 11.559%

Shots Over 13.544%

Expected shots13.32

On Target Over 3.562%

On Target Over 4.546%

On Target Over 5.531%

Expected on target4.54

Shots per Game

Casa Pia — total shots (home)8.6

Benfica — total shots (away)16.0

Shots on Target

Casa Pia — on target (home)3.1

Benfica — on target (away)5.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.53

Outside the box3.39

Benfica

Inside the box11.59

Outside the box5.47

Player Shots Casa Pia

Gaizka Larrazabal

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target14%

Max Svensson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

J. Livolant

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target9%

Cassiano

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target12%

D. Livramento

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Benfica

V. Pavlidis

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target82%

+1.5 On Target36%

Rafa

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target56%

+1.5 On Target25%

F. Ivanović

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target20%

A. Cabral

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

R. Rios

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target19%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Casa Pia xG (home)0.93

Benfica xG (away)2.07

Average Possession

41.17% Possession 57.82%

Team Comparison Casa Pia vs Benfica

71.94% Pass accuracy 84.24%

299.28 Passes per match 480.35

-0.13 Goals prevented 0.18

16.06 Fouls committed 11.15

2.78 Goalkeeper saves 2.47

1.51 Offsides 1.68

15.19 Tackles per match 16.56

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Casa Pia vs Benfica prediction analysis

Review Casa Pia vs Benfica with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights