What markets are included in the Casa Pia vs Nacional prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Casa Pia vs Nacional prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Casa Pia vs Nacional

Casa Pia vs Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-10-25 17:45

Casa Pia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

22%

Confidence

High

Score

0-0

Nacional

Away

Prediction Summary

36%

35%

29%

Under 2.5

78%

BTTS No

69%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Casa Pia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.29

Goals conceded / match1.12

Over 2.5 rate18%

BTTS rate65%

Nacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.53

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate29%

Team Form last 5 matches

Casa Pia

LWDLD

Nacional

LDLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

82% +0.5 41%

29% +1.5 12%

18% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

65% BTTS 29%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 22%. Model confidence is High.

Casa Pia averages 1.29 goals scored at home, while Nacional averages 0.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength

78%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

36%

Draw

35%

Away Win

29%

Over 2.5

22%

BTTS Yes

31%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Casa Pia(A) 0 - 0 Nacional Draw

Aug 2025 Casa Pia 0 - 2 Nacional Away

Mar 2025 Casa Pia(A) 1 - 3 Nacional Away

Oct 2024 Casa Pia 1 - 0 Nacional Home

Nov 2023 Casa Pia(A) 0 - 0 Nacional Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Casa Pia — unbeaten run (home)1

Casa Pia — scoring streak (home)2

Nacional — winless run (away)2

Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Casa Pia Win (1)36%

Draw (X)35%

Nacional Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

82% +0.5 41%

29% +1.5 12%

18% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

18% -0.5 59%

71% -1.5 88%

82% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Casa Pia vs Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Casa Pia — scored (home)1.29

Casa Pia — conceded (home)1.12

Nacional — scored (away)0.53

Nacional — conceded (away)1.35

Model expected combined goals1.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes31%

No69%

Rate per Team

Casa Pia — BTTS matches (home)65%

Nacional — BTTS matches (away)29%

Combined (simple average)47%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.597%

Under 5.53%

Over 6.591%

Under 6.59%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.544%

Under 9.556%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Casa Pia (home)

Corners for4.5

Corners against4.5

Nacional (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Casa Pia

7 8 5 9 17

Nacional

9 7 9 9 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.591%

Under 1.59%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Casa Pia (home)

For2.8

Nacional (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Casa Pia — total shots (home)10.6

Nacional — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Casa Pia — on target (home)3.2

Nacional — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.59

Outside the box3.76

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Player Shots Casa Pia

Max Svensson

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

Nuno Moreira

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target19%

Henrique Pereira

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target4%

Cassiano

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target12%

Leonardo Lelo

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target19%

+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Casa Pia xG (home)0.9

Nacional xG (away)1.03

Average Possession

46.65% Possession 47.29%

Team Comparison Casa Pia vs Nacional

76.68% Pass accuracy 76.94%

363.74 Passes per match 339.32

0.09 Goals prevented 0

14.82 Fouls committed 13.5

3.64 Goalkeeper saves 3.15

1.32 Offsides 1.65

14.71 Tackles per match 15.94

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Casa Pia vs Nacional prediction analysis

Review Casa Pia vs Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights