What markets are included in the Casa Pia vs Nacional prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Casa Pia vs Nacional prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Casa Pia vs Nacional

Casa Pia vs Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-08-30 14:30

Casa Pia

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

41%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Nacional

Away

Prediction Summary

38%

28%

34%

Under 2.5

59%

BTTS No

53%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Casa Pia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.11

Goals conceded / match1.44

Over 2.5 rate17%

BTTS rate56%

Nacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.82

Goals conceded / match1.29

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Casa Pia

WDDWL

Nacional

WLLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

61% +0.5 65%

33% +1.5 18%

17% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

56% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Casa Pia averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while Nacional averages 0.82 goals scored away.

Model Strength

59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

38%

Draw

28%

Away Win

34%

Over 2.5

41%

BTTS Yes

47%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Casa Pia(A) 0 - 0 Nacional Draw

Aug 2025 Casa Pia 0 - 2 Nacional Away

Mar 2025 Casa Pia(A) 1 - 3 Nacional Away

Oct 2024 Casa Pia 1 - 0 Nacional Home

Nov 2023 Casa Pia(A) 0 - 0 Nacional Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Casa Pia won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Casa Pia — unbeaten run (home)2

Casa Pia — scoring streak (home)2

Nacional — winless run (away)1

Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Casa Pia Win (1)38%

Draw (X)28%

Nacional Win (2)34%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

61% +0.5 65%

33% +1.5 18%

17% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

39% -0.5 35%

67% -1.5 82%

83% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Casa Pia vs Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Casa Pia — scored (home)1.11

Casa Pia — conceded (home)1.44

Nacional — scored (away)0.82

Nacional — conceded (away)1.29

Model expected combined goals2.34

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%

No53%

Rate per Team

Casa Pia — BTTS matches (home)56%

Nacional — BTTS matches (away)47%

Combined (simple average)51.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.580%

Under 5.520%

Over 6.580%

Under 6.520%

Over 7.577%

Under 7.523%

Over 8.569%

Under 8.531%

Over 9.555%

Under 9.545%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Casa Pia (home)

Corners for3.7

Corners against5.8

Nacional (away)

Corners for4.0

Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Casa Pia

9 10 9 8 15

Nacional

12 15 14 10 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.586%

Under 2.514%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Casa Pia (home)

For3.0

Nacional (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Casa Pia — total shots (home)8.6

Nacional — total shots (away)12.5

Shots on Target

Casa Pia — on target (home)3.1

Nacional — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.53

Outside the box3.39

Nacional

Inside the box7.32

Outside the box5.24

Player Shots Casa Pia

Gaizka Larrazabal

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target14%

Max Svensson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

J. Livolant

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target9%

Cassiano

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target12%

D. Livramento

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Nacional

C. Ramírez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target85%

+1.5 On Target36%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target12%

Daniel Júnior

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target0%

Gabriel Veron

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target23%

+1.5 On Target8%

Zé Vitor

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target30%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Casa Pia xG (home)0.93

Nacional xG (away)1.15

Average Possession

41.17% Possession 46.12%

Team Comparison Casa Pia vs Nacional

71.94% Pass accuracy 75.62%

299.28 Passes per match 332.56

-0.13 Goals prevented 0.02

16.06 Fouls committed 14.91

2.78 Goalkeeper saves 3.12

1.51 Offsides 1.39

15.19 Tackles per match 16.41

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Casa Pia vs Nacional prediction analysis

Review Casa Pia vs Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights