Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Ceara vs Flamengo

Ceara vs Flamengo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-08-03 21:30
Ceara
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
29%
Confidence
High
Score
0-1
Flamengo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
30%
X
32%
2
38%
Under 2.5
71%
BTTS No
63%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Ceara (Home)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate42%

Flamengo (Away)

Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Ceara
LLDLL
Flamengo
DWDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 79%
26% +1.5 58%
5% +2.5 21%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%
42% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 29%. Model confidence is High.

Ceara averages 1.05 goals scored at home, while Flamengo averages 1.68 goals scored away.

Model Strength
71%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
30%
Draw
32%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
29%
BTTS Yes
37%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Ceara(A) 0 - 1 Flamengo Away
Aug 2025 Ceara 1 - 1 Flamengo Draw
Sep 2022 Ceara(A) 1 - 1 Flamengo Draw
May 2022 Ceara 2 - 2 Flamengo Draw
Nov 2021 Ceara(A) 1 - 2 Flamengo Away

In the last 5 meetings, Ceara won 0, drew 3 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Ceara — unbeaten run (home)0
Ceara — scoring streak (home)5
Flamengo — winless run (away)3
Flamengo — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Ceara Win (1)30%
Draw (X)32%
Flamengo Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 79%
26% +1.5 58%
5% +2.5 21%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 21%
74% -1.5 42%
95% -2.5 79%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 95%

Ceara vs Flamengo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Ceara — scored (home)1.05
Ceara — conceded (home)0.95
Flamengo — scored (away)1.68
Flamengo — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals1.88

Both Teams To Score

Yes37%
No63%

Rate per Team

Ceara — BTTS matches (home)42%
Flamengo — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.576%
Under 6.524%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Ceara (home)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.5

Flamengo (away)

Corners for5.7
Corners against3.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Ceara
8 18 13 7 14
Flamengo
8 10 6 7 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Ceara (home)

For2.1

Flamengo (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Ceara — total shots (home)13.2
Flamengo — total shots (away)13.8

Shots on Target

Ceara — on target (home)4.3
Flamengo — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Ceara

Inside the box6.87
Outside the box4.95

Flamengo

Inside the box9.92
Outside the box5.55

Player Shots Ceara

Pedro Raul
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target38%
Éder
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Pedro Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
A. Galeano
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Vina
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Flamengo

Pedro
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target38%
G. de Arrascaeta
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target12%
Bruno Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Samuel Lino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target10%
Luiz Araújo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Ceara xG (home)0.96
Flamengo xG (away)1.63

Average Possession

42.03% Possession 62.08%

Team Comparison Ceara vs Flamengo

79.03% Pass accuracy 88.34%
330.84 Passes per match 562.39
0.17 Goals prevented -0.02
13.61 Fouls committed 13.42
2.97 Goalkeeper saves 2.5
2.42 Offsides 1.24
15.84 Tackles per match 15.21

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Ceara vs Flamengo prediction analysis

Review Ceara vs Flamengo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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