Prediction Analysis: Ceara vs Ponte Preta
Ceara vs Ponte Preta prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie B
2026-08-07
23:30
Ceara
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
28%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
Ponte Preta
Away
Prediction Summary
1
48%
X
31%
2
21%
Under 2.5
72%
BTTS No
66%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Ceara (Home)
Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match0.67
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%
Ponte Preta (Away)
Goals scored / match0.67
Goals conceded / match2.33
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate33%
Team Form last 5 matches
Ceara
LDDLL
Ponte Preta
LLLLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
0%
+0.5
33%
0%
+1.5
33%
0%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
0%
BTTS
33%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 28%. Model confidence is High.
Ceara averages 0 goals scored at home, while Ponte Preta averages 0.67 goals scored away.
Model Strength
72%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
48%
Draw
31%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
28%
BTTS Yes
34%
Head-to-Head last 4
Oct 2024
Ceara
1 - 0
Ponte Preta
Home
Jun 2024
Ceara(A)
1 - 3
Ponte Preta
Away
Aug 2023
Ceara
1 - 1
Ponte Preta
Draw
May 2023
Ceara(A)
0 - 0
Ponte Preta
Draw
In the last 4 meetings, Ceara won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Ceara — unbeaten run (home)0
Ceara — scoring streak (home)0
Ponte Preta — winless run (away)3
Ponte Preta — clean sheets (away, last 3)0 of 3
1X2 Probability model
Ceara Win (1)48%
Draw (X)31%
Ponte Preta Win (2)21%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
0%
+0.5
33%
0%
+1.5
33%
0%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
100%
-0.5
67%
100%
-1.5
67%
100%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Ceara vs Ponte Preta — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Ceara — scored (home)0
Ceara — conceded (home)0.67
Ponte Preta — scored (away)0.67
Ponte Preta — conceded (away)2.33
Model expected combined goals1.83
Both Teams To Score
Yes34%
No66%
Rate per Team
Ceara — BTTS matches (home)0%
Ponte Preta — BTTS matches (away)33%
Combined (simple average)16.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Ceara (home)
Corners for5.7
Corners against3.7
Ponte Preta (away)
Corners for5.0
Corners against5.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Ceara
10
16
9
8
7
Ponte Preta
8
11
6
12
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Ceara (home)
For2.0
Ponte Preta (away)
For3.0
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.549%
Under 25.551%
Expected total shots26.01
Ceara
Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.574%
Shots Over 13.560%
Expected shots15.28
On Target Over 3.570%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.536%
Expected on target4.87
Ponte Preta
Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.539%
Shots Over 13.524%
Expected shots10.72
On Target Over 3.541%
On Target Over 4.523%
On Target Over 5.512%
Expected on target3.25
Shots per Game
Ceara — total shots (home)11.7
Ponte Preta — total shots (away)10.3
Shots on Target
Ceara — on target (home)3.3
Ponte Preta — on target (away)3.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Ceara
Inside the box5.17
Outside the box6.5
Ponte Preta
Inside the box5.5
Outside the box5.25
Player Shots Ceara
Lucca
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target17%
Vina
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
Enzo Valentim Lodovico
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target0%
Melk
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%
Bryan
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Ponte Preta
Élvis
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target67%
Brandão
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
Danilo Barcelos
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
Lucas Cunha
Shots on Target/Game0
+0.5 On Target0%
+1.5 On Target0%
Rodriguinho
Shots on Target/Game0
+0.5 On Target0%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara xG (home)0.67
Ponte Preta xG (away)0.97
Average Possession
52.14%
Possession
41%
Team Comparison Ceara vs Ponte Preta
75.67%
Pass accuracy
74.75%
335.83
Passes per match
264.25
-0.23
Goals prevented
-0.13
13.14
Fouls committed
18
2.29
Goalkeeper saves
3
0.86
Offsides
0.75
14.57
Tackles per match
17.25
League average xG this season is 1.13 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Ceara vs Ponte Preta prediction analysis
Review Ceara vs Ponte Preta with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie B.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie B
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights