Prediction Analysis: Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2025-05-18
17:00
Celta Vigo
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Rayo Vallecano
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
28%
2
26%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Celta Vigo (Home)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate63%
Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Celta Vigo
WLWWL
Rayo Vallecano
DWDWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
68%
53%
+1.5
21%
26%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
63%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.
Celta Vigo averages 1.68 goals scored at home, while Rayo Vallecano averages 0.89 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
28%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
Celta Vigo
3 - 0
Rayo Vallecano
Home
Sep 2025
Celta Vigo(A)
1 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
Draw
May 2025
Celta Vigo
1 - 2
Rayo Vallecano
Away
Jan 2025
Celta Vigo(A)
1 - 2
Rayo Vallecano
Away
Mar 2024
Celta Vigo
0 - 0
Rayo Vallecano
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Celta Vigo won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Celta Vigo — unbeaten run (home)0
Celta Vigo — scoring streak (home)3
Rayo Vallecano — winless run (away)0
Rayo Vallecano — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Celta Vigo Win (1)46%
Draw (X)28%
Rayo Vallecano Win (2)26%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
68%
53%
+1.5
21%
26%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
32%
47%
-1.5
79%
74%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Celta Vigo — scored (home)1.68
Celta Vigo — conceded (home)1.11
Rayo Vallecano — scored (away)0.89
Rayo Vallecano — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.31
Both Teams To Score
Yes45%
No55%
Rate per Team
Celta Vigo — BTTS matches (home)63%
Rayo Vallecano — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)55%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Celta Vigo (home)
Corners for4.5
Corners against3.8
Rayo Vallecano (away)
Corners for4.9
Corners against6.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Celta Vigo
10
9
15
11
8
Rayo Vallecano
10
16
17
11
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Celta Vigo (home)
For2.1
Rayo Vallecano (away)
For2.9
Shots per Game
Celta Vigo — total shots (home)12.4
Rayo Vallecano — total shots (away)11.4
Shots on Target
Celta Vigo — on target (home)5.3
Rayo Vallecano — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Celta Vigo
Inside the box7.76
Outside the box4.11
Rayo Vallecano
Inside the box7.68
Outside the box5.87
Player Shots Celta Vigo
T. Douvikas
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target10%
Borja Iglesias
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Bamba
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Iago Aspas
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target23%
Alfon González
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%
Player Shots Rayo Vallecano
Ó. Trejo
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target5%
+1.5 On Target5%
Sergio Camello
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target9%
Sergi Guardiola
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target6%
Pep Chavarría
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
Álvaro García
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target14%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Celta Vigo xG (home)1.44
Rayo Vallecano xG (away)1.2
Average Possession
53.71%
Possession
51.68%
Team Comparison Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano
84.66%
Pass accuracy
79.29%
517.95
Passes per match
420.82
-0.14
Goals prevented
0.06
12.16
Fouls committed
13.74
2.42
Goalkeeper saves
2.95
1.86
Offsides
2.26
14.68
Tackles per match
16.68
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano prediction analysis
Review Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights