Prediction Analysis: CF Pachuca vs Puebla
CF Pachuca vs Puebla prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Liga MX
2026-08-18
03:00
CF Pachuca
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Puebla
Away
Prediction Summary
1
57%
X
24%
2
19%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
CF Pachuca (Home)
Goals scored / match1.45
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate45%
Puebla (Away)
Goals scored / match0.84
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
CF Pachuca
WLWWW
Puebla
LWLLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
70%
+0.5
63%
50%
+1.5
11%
20%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
45%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Medium.
CF Pachuca averages 1.45 goals scored at home, while Puebla averages 0.84 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
57%
Draw
24%
Away Win
19%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
CF Pachuca
2 - 1
Puebla
Home
Sep 2025
CF Pachuca(A)
2 - 2
Puebla
Draw
Feb 2025
CF Pachuca
2 - 1
Puebla
Home
Sep 2024
CF Pachuca(A)
3 - 2
Puebla
Home
Feb 2024
CF Pachuca(A)
4 - 1
Puebla
Home
In the last 5 meetings, CF Pachuca won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
CF Pachuca — unbeaten run (home)2
CF Pachuca — scoring streak (home)2
Puebla — winless run (away)1
Puebla — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
CF Pachuca Win (1)57%
Draw (X)24%
Puebla Win (2)19%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
70%
+0.5
63%
50%
+1.5
11%
20%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
30%
-0.5
37%
50%
-1.5
89%
80%
-2.5
95%
95%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
CF Pachuca vs Puebla — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
CF Pachuca — scored (home)1.45
CF Pachuca — conceded (home)0.95
Puebla — scored (away)0.84
Puebla — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals2.62
Both Teams To Score
Yes49%
No51%
Rate per Team
CF Pachuca — BTTS matches (home)45%
Puebla — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)49%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
CF Pachuca (home)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.1
Puebla (away)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
CF Pachuca
14
7
10
6
13
Puebla
9
7
15
9
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
CF Pachuca (home)
For2.5
Puebla (away)
For2.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.576%
Under 19.524%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.33
CF Pachuca
Shots Over 9.585%
Shots Over 11.574%
Shots Over 13.560%
Expected shots15.59
On Target Over 3.572%
On Target Over 4.557%
On Target Over 5.542%
Expected on target5.27
Puebla
Shots Over 9.557%
Shots Over 11.539%
Shots Over 13.525%
Expected shots10.74
On Target Over 3.548%
On Target Over 4.531%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.66
Shots per Game
CF Pachuca — total shots (home)14.9
Puebla — total shots (away)10.8
Shots on Target
CF Pachuca — on target (home)4.8
Puebla — on target (away)3.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
CF Pachuca
Inside the box7.15
Outside the box6.8
Puebla
Inside the box6.97
Outside the box5.26
Player Shots CF Pachuca
A. Domínguez
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target10%
S. Rondón
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. Cádiz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Valencia
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target27%
I. Hernández
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target17%
Player Shots Puebla
I. Maestro Puch
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
I. Moreno
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target5%
+1.5 On Target5%
E. Guerra
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target22%
E. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
L. Rey
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target4%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
CF Pachuca xG (home)1.09
Puebla xG (away)0.91
Average Possession
48.75%
Possession
48.03%
Team Comparison CF Pachuca vs Puebla
82.83%
Pass accuracy
80.89%
400.3
Passes per match
379.85
-0.23
Goals prevented
-0.04
13.45
Fouls committed
12.56
2.68
Goalkeeper saves
3.03
1.58
Offsides
1.4
16
Tackles per match
15.97
League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
CF Pachuca vs Puebla prediction and preview
Preview CF Pachuca vs Puebla with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights