Prediction Analysis: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Jupiler Pro League
2025-12-14
17:30
Charleroi
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
35%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Prediction Summary
1
33%
X
30%
2
38%
Under 2.5
65%
BTTS No
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Charleroi (Home)
Goals scored / match1.3
Goals conceded / match1.3
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate60%
Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Goals scored / match1.15
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate55%
Team Form last 5 matches
Charleroi
WDLWW
Union St. Gilloise
WDLWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
80%
+0.5
65%
40%
+1.5
25%
10%
+2.5
20%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
60%
BTTS
55%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 35%. Model confidence is Medium.
Charleroi averages 1.3 goals scored at home, while Union St. Gilloise averages 1.15 goals scored away.
Model Strength
65%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
33%
Draw
30%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Charleroi(A)
1 - 4
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Feb 2026
Charleroi
0 - 0
Union St. Gilloise
Draw
Dec 2025
Charleroi
1 - 1
Union St. Gilloise
Draw
Oct 2025
Charleroi(A)
1 - 3
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Jan 2025
Charleroi
1 - 2
Union St. Gilloise
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Charleroi won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Charleroi — unbeaten run (home)1
Charleroi — scoring streak (home)1
Union St. Gilloise — winless run (away)3
Union St. Gilloise — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Charleroi Win (1)33%
Draw (X)30%
Union St. Gilloise Win (2)38%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
80%
+0.5
65%
40%
+1.5
25%
10%
+2.5
20%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
20%
-0.5
35%
60%
-1.5
75%
90%
-2.5
80%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Charleroi — scored (home)1.3
Charleroi — conceded (home)1.3
Union St. Gilloise — scored (away)1.15
Union St. Gilloise — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.11
Both Teams To Score
Yes42%
No58%
Rate per Team
Charleroi — BTTS matches (home)60%
Union St. Gilloise — BTTS matches (away)55%
Combined (simple average)57.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.593%
Under 6.57%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Charleroi (home)
Corners for6.1
Corners against5.2
Union St. Gilloise (away)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Charleroi
9
7
13
20
15
Union St. Gilloise
10
6
16
13
5
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.593%
Under 0.57%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Charleroi (home)
For2.1
Union St. Gilloise (away)
For3.1
Shots per Game
Charleroi — total shots (home)14.0
Union St. Gilloise — total shots (away)14.1
Shots on Target
Charleroi — on target (home)4.8
Union St. Gilloise — on target (away)4.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Charleroi
Inside the box8.5
Outside the box4.5
Union St. Gilloise
Inside the box10.98
Outside the box4.2
Player Shots Charleroi
P. Guiagon
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
A. Scheidler
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
N. Štulić
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Y. Titraoui
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
P. Pflücke
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Union St. Gilloise
P. David
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target29%
M. Biondic
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target32%
R. Sykes
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Florucz
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target8%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Charleroi xG (home)1.33
Union St. Gilloise xG (away)1.7
Average Possession
49.78%
Possession
52.1%
Team Comparison Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise
80.28%
Pass accuracy
79.8%
394.8
Passes per match
431.95
0.04
Goals prevented
0.07
11.3
Fouls committed
12.1
2.53
Goalkeeper saves
1.85
2.35
Offsides
2.53
15.98
Tackles per match
18.43
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise prediction analysis
Review Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Jupiler Pro League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Jupiler Pro League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights