Prediction Analysis: Charlton vs Derby
Charlton vs Derby prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Championship
2026-08-15
14:00
Charlton
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Derby
Away
Prediction Summary
1
33%
X
27%
2
40%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Charlton (Home)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate52%
Derby (Away)
Goals scored / match1.57
Goals conceded / match1.39
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Charlton
LWLDL
Derby
LWLWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
83%
+0.5
87%
13%
+1.5
43%
4%
+2.5
17%
0%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
52%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Low.
Charlton averages 1 goals scored at home, while Derby averages 1.57 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
33%
Draw
27%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
52%
Head-to-Head last 4
Jan 2026
Charlton
1 - 2
Derby
Away
Sep 2025
Charlton(A)
1 - 1
Derby
Draw
Dec 2019
Charlton(A)
1 - 2
Derby
Away
Oct 2019
Charlton
3 - 0
Derby
Home
In the last 4 meetings, Charlton won 1, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Charlton — unbeaten run (home)1
Charlton — scoring streak (home)4
Derby — winless run (away)0
Derby — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Charlton Win (1)33%
Draw (X)27%
Derby Win (2)40%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
83%
+0.5
87%
13%
+1.5
43%
4%
+2.5
17%
0%
+3.5
4%
0%
+4.5
4%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
17%
-0.5
13%
87%
-1.5
57%
96%
-2.5
83%
100%
-3.5
96%
100%
-4.5
96%
Charlton vs Derby — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Charlton — scored (home)1
Charlton — conceded (home)1.13
Derby — scored (away)1.57
Derby — conceded (away)1.39
Model expected combined goals2.54
Both Teams To Score
Yes52%
No48%
Rate per Team
Charlton — BTTS matches (home)52%
Derby — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)58.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
Charlton (home)
Corners for5.1
Corners against4.3
Derby (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against6.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Charlton
11
9
5
16
14
Derby
8
10
7
16
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Charlton (home)
For2.4
Derby (away)
For2.8
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.556%
Under 22.544%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.49
Charlton
Shots Over 9.577%
Shots Over 11.562%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.42
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.44
Derby
Shots Over 9.561%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.07
On Target Over 3.547%
On Target Over 4.529%
On Target Over 5.517%
Expected on target3.56
Shots per Game
Charlton — total shots (home)12.8
Derby — total shots (away)10.0
Shots on Target
Charlton — on target (home)4.1
Derby — on target (away)3.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Charlton
Inside the box7.54
Outside the box3.46
Derby
Inside the box7.63
Outside the box3.35
Player Shots Charlton
S. Carey
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target15%
C. Kelman
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Dykes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Godden
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Fevrier
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target18%
Player Shots Derby
P. Agyemang
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Szmodics
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target8%
C. Morris
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target10%
B. Brereton
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. Banel
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Charlton xG (home)1.03
Derby xG (away)1.23
Average Possession
42.3%
Possession
44.48%
Team Comparison Charlton vs Derby
70.28%
Pass accuracy
73.22%
315.15
Passes per match
336.26
-0.07
Goals prevented
0.02
12.09
Fouls committed
12.22
3.04
Goalkeeper saves
3.15
2.15
Offsides
1.6
13.59
Tackles per match
14.65
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Charlton vs Derby prediction analysis
Review Charlton vs Derby with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights