Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Charlton vs Middlesbrough

Charlton vs Middlesbrough prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-12-09 19:45
Charlton
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Middlesbrough
Away

Prediction Summary

1
33%
X
27%
2
40%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Charlton (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate4%
BTTS rate52%

Middlesbrough (Away)

Goals scored / match1.56
Goals conceded / match1.28
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate64%

Team Form last 5 matches

Charlton
LWLDL
Middlesbrough
LLDDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

83% +0.5 76%
13% +1.5 52%
4% +2.5 20%
0% +3.5 8%
0% +4.5 0%
52% BTTS 64%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Low.

Charlton averages 1 goals scored at home, while Middlesbrough averages 1.56 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
33%
Draw
27%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 4

Mar 2026 Charlton(A) 1 - 0 Middlesbrough Home
Dec 2025 Charlton 1 - 2 Middlesbrough Away
Mar 2020 Charlton 0 - 1 Middlesbrough Away
Dec 2019 Charlton(A) 0 - 1 Middlesbrough Away

In the last 4 meetings, Charlton won 1, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Charlton — unbeaten run (home)1
Charlton — scoring streak (home)4
Middlesbrough — winless run (away)6
Middlesbrough — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Charlton Win (1)33%
Draw (X)27%
Middlesbrough Win (2)40%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

83% +0.5 76%
13% +1.5 52%
4% +2.5 20%
0% +3.5 8%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

17% -0.5 24%
87% -1.5 48%
96% -2.5 80%
100% -3.5 92%
100% -4.5 100%

Charlton vs Middlesbrough — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Charlton — scored (home)1
Charlton — conceded (home)1.13
Middlesbrough — scored (away)1.56
Middlesbrough — conceded (away)1.28
Model expected combined goals2.49

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Charlton — BTTS matches (home)52%
Middlesbrough — BTTS matches (away)64%
Combined (simple average)58%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.596%
Under 4.54%
Over 5.586%
Under 5.514%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.566%
Under 7.534%
Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Charlton (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.3

Middlesbrough (away)

Corners for5.8
Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Charlton
11 9 5 16 14
Middlesbrough
9 9 12 16 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Charlton (home)

For2.4

Middlesbrough (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Charlton — total shots (home)12.8
Middlesbrough — total shots (away)15.2

Shots on Target

Charlton — on target (home)4.1
Middlesbrough — on target (away)4.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Charlton

Inside the box7.54
Outside the box3.46

Middlesbrough

Inside the box10.41
Outside the box5.82

Player Shots Charlton

S. Carey
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target15%
C. Kelman
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Dykes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Godden
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Fevrier
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target18%

Player Shots Middlesbrough

M. Whittaker
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target21%
Leo Castledine
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
T. Conway
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Strelec
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target11%
H. Hackney
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Charlton xG (home)1.03
Middlesbrough xG (away)1.5

Average Possession

42.3% Possession 59.43%

Team Comparison Charlton vs Middlesbrough

70.28% Pass accuracy 84.08%
315.15 Passes per match 516.84
-0.07 Goals prevented -0.17
12.09 Fouls committed 9.33
3.04 Goalkeeper saves 2.22
2.15 Offsides 1.89
13.59 Tackles per match 15.45

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Charlton vs Middlesbrough prediction analysis

Review Charlton vs Middlesbrough with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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