What markets are included in the Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2024-12-01 13:30

Chelsea

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

61%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Aston Villa

Away

Prediction Summary

42%

23%

35%

Over 2.5

61%

BTTS Yes

63%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Chelsea (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate63%

Aston Villa (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26

Goals conceded / match1.63

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Chelsea

WWLWW

Aston Villa

LWWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 74%

53% +1.5 37%

26% +2.5 16%

11% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

63% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 61%. Model confidence is Medium.

Chelsea averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Aston Villa averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength

63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

42%

Draw

23%

Away Win

35%

Over 2.5

61%

BTTS Yes

63%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Chelsea(A) 4 - 1 Aston Villa Home

Dec 2025 Chelsea 1 - 2 Aston Villa Away

Feb 2025 Chelsea(A) 1 - 2 Aston Villa Away

Dec 2024 Chelsea 3 - 0 Aston Villa Home

Apr 2024 Chelsea(A) 2 - 2 Aston Villa Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Chelsea won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Chelsea — unbeaten run (home)10

Chelsea — scoring streak (home)18

Aston Villa — winless run (away)1

Aston Villa — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Chelsea Win (1)42%

Draw (X)23%

Aston Villa Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 74%

53% +1.5 37%

26% +2.5 16%

11% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 26%

47% -1.5 63%

74% -2.5 84%

89% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Chelsea vs Aston Villa — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Chelsea — scored (home)1.84

Chelsea — conceded (home)0.95

Aston Villa — scored (away)1.26

Aston Villa — conceded (away)1.63

Model expected combined goals3.17

Both Teams To Score

Yes63%

No37%

Rate per Team

Chelsea — BTTS matches (home)63%

Aston Villa — BTTS matches (away)47%

Combined (simple average)55%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%

Under 4.55%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.589%

Under 6.511%

Over 7.571%

Under 7.529%

Over 8.566%

Under 8.534%

Over 9.558%

Under 9.542%

Over 10.545%

Under 10.555%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Chelsea (home)

Corners for6.5

Corners against3.4

Aston Villa (away)

Corners for4.7

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Chelsea

12 9 10 9 11

Aston Villa

12 8 10 10 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.587%

Under 2.513%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Chelsea (home)

For2.8

Aston Villa (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Chelsea — total shots (home)17.8

Aston Villa — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Chelsea — on target (home)6.7

Aston Villa — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Chelsea

Inside the box10.37

Outside the box5.29

Aston Villa

Inside the box8.87

Outside the box3.87

Player Shots Chelsea

N. Madueke

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

C. Palmer

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target30%

N. Jackson

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target33%

T. Chalobah

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target15%

+1.5 On Target8%

Pedro Neto

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Aston Villa

Marco Asensio

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target31%

O. Watkins

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target29%

J. McGinn

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target9%

+1.5 On Target6%

J. Durán

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target20%

M. Rogers

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chelsea xG (home)1.82

Aston Villa xG (away)1.51

Average Possession

57.18% Possession 50.61%

Team Comparison Chelsea vs Aston Villa

86.29% Pass accuracy 84.34%

520.5 Passes per match 434.26

0.11 Goals prevented 0.14

11.47 Fouls committed 10.68

3.03 Goalkeeper saves 2.84

1.76 Offsides 1.53

15.39 Tackles per match 16.79

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction analysis

Review Chelsea vs Aston Villa with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights