What markets are included in the Chelsea vs Benfica prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Chelsea vs Benfica prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Chelsea vs Benfica

Chelsea vs Benfica prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

UEFA Champions League 2025-09-30 19:00

Chelsea

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

41%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Benfica

Away

Prediction Summary

57%

25%

18%

Under 2.5

59%

BTTS No

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Chelsea (Home)

Goals scored / match2

Goals conceded / match0.8

Over 2.5 rate40%

BTTS rate20%

Benfica (Away)

Goals scored / match0.71

Goals conceded / match1.14

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate14%

Team Form last 5 matches

Chelsea

LLWWL

Benfica

LLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

80% +0.5 43%

40% +1.5 29%

40% +2.5 0%

20% +3.5 0%

20% +4.5 0%

20% BTTS 14%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Chelsea averages 2 goals scored at home, while Benfica averages 0.71 goals scored away.

Model Strength

59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

18%

Over 2.5

41%

BTTS Yes

42%

Head-to-Head last 1

Sep 2025 Chelsea 1 - 0 Benfica Home

In the last 1 meetings, Chelsea won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Chelsea — unbeaten run (home)0

Chelsea — scoring streak (home)0

Benfica — winless run (away)2

Benfica — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Chelsea Win (1)57%

Draw (X)25%

Benfica Win (2)18%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

80% +0.5 43%

40% +1.5 29%

40% +2.5 0%

20% +3.5 0%

20% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

20% -0.5 57%

60% -1.5 71%

60% -2.5 100%

80% -3.5 100%

80% -4.5 100%

Chelsea vs Benfica — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Chelsea — scored (home)2

Chelsea — conceded (home)0.8

Benfica — scored (away)0.71

Benfica — conceded (away)1.14

Model expected combined goals2.33

Both Teams To Score

Yes42%

No58%

Rate per Team

Chelsea — BTTS matches (home)20%

Benfica — BTTS matches (away)14%

Combined (simple average)17%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%

Under 4.510%

Over 5.590%

Under 5.510%

Over 6.590%

Under 6.510%

Over 7.590%

Under 7.510%

Over 8.566%

Under 8.534%

Over 9.559%

Under 9.541%

Over 10.559%

Under 10.541%

Expected total corners (blended average)11.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Chelsea (home)

Corners for8.4

Corners against2.0

Benfica (away)

Corners for5.7

Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Chelsea

7 17 5 5 12

Benfica

8 11 11 9 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.590%

Under 0.510%

Over 1.590%

Under 1.510%

Over 2.569%

Under 2.531%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Chelsea (home)

For2.3

Benfica (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Chelsea — total shots (home)16.8

Benfica — total shots (away)11.0

Shots on Target

Chelsea — on target (home)7.0

Benfica — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Chelsea

Inside the box8.7

Outside the box5.2

Benfica

Inside the box8.71

Outside the box5.07

Player Shots Chelsea

Estêvão

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target14%

A. Garnacho

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target33%

L. Delap

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target20%

João Pedro

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

C. Palmer

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target75%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Benfica

D. Lukebakio

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target75%

+1.5 On Target50%

K. Aktürkoğlu

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

R. Rios

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target0%

V. Pavlidis

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target21%

A. Schjelderup

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chelsea xG (home)1.65

Benfica xG (away)1.43

Average Possession

54.6% Possession 47.07%

Team Comparison Chelsea vs Benfica

88.5% Pass accuracy 83.07%

532.8 Passes per match 434.5

-0.43 Goals prevented -0.14

12.2 Fouls committed 10.5

2.1 Goalkeeper saves 3.07

2.22 Offsides 1.46

15.3 Tackles per match 17.29

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Chelsea vs Benfica prediction analysis

Review Chelsea vs Benfica with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights