What markets are included in the Chelsea vs Brighton prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Chelsea vs Brighton prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Chelsea vs Brighton

Chelsea vs Brighton prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2024-09-28 14:00

Chelsea

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

62%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Brighton

Away

Prediction Summary

46%

23%

31%

Over 2.5

62%

BTTS Yes

63%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Chelsea (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate63%

Brighton (Away)

Goals scored / match1.89

Goals conceded / match1.74

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

Chelsea

WWLWW

Brighton

WWWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 95%

53% +1.5 63%

26% +2.5 21%

11% +3.5 11%

0% +4.5 0%

63% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.

Chelsea averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Brighton averages 1.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength

63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

46%

Draw

23%

Away Win

31%

Over 2.5

62%

BTTS Yes

63%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Chelsea(A) 0 - 3 Brighton Away

Sep 2025 Chelsea 1 - 3 Brighton Away

Feb 2025 Chelsea(A) 0 - 3 Brighton Away

Feb 2025 Chelsea(A) 1 - 2 Brighton Away

Sep 2024 Chelsea 4 - 2 Brighton Home

In the last 5 meetings, Chelsea won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Chelsea — unbeaten run (home)10

Chelsea — scoring streak (home)18

Brighton — winless run (away)0

Brighton — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Chelsea Win (1)46%

Draw (X)23%

Brighton Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 95%

53% +1.5 63%

26% +2.5 21%

11% +3.5 11%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 5%

47% -1.5 37%

74% -2.5 79%

89% -3.5 89%

100% -4.5 100%

Chelsea vs Brighton — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Chelsea — scored (home)1.84

Chelsea — conceded (home)0.95

Brighton — scored (away)1.89

Brighton — conceded (away)1.74

Model expected combined goals3.21

Both Teams To Score

Yes63%

No37%

Rate per Team

Chelsea — BTTS matches (home)63%

Brighton — BTTS matches (away)68%

Combined (simple average)65.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.598%

Under 5.52%

Over 6.587%

Under 6.513%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.571%

Under 8.529%

Over 9.558%

Under 9.542%

Over 10.542%

Under 10.558%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Chelsea (home)

Corners for6.5

Corners against3.4

Brighton (away)

Corners for5.1

Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Chelsea

12 9 10 9 11

Brighton

9 5 11 6 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.595%

Under 1.55%

Over 2.582%

Under 2.518%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Chelsea (home)

For2.8

Brighton (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Chelsea — total shots (home)17.8

Brighton — total shots (away)12.8

Shots on Target

Chelsea — on target (home)6.7

Brighton — on target (away)4.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Chelsea

Inside the box10.37

Outside the box5.29

Brighton

Inside the box9.26

Outside the box4.76

Player Shots Chelsea

N. Madueke

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

C. Palmer

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target30%

N. Jackson

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target33%

T. Chalobah

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target15%

+1.5 On Target8%

Pedro Neto

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Brighton

D. Gómez

Shots on Target/Game3

+0.5 On Target6%

+1.5 On Target6%

J. Enciso

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target17%

P. Estupiñán

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target10%

Y. Minteh

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target13%

K. Mitoma

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target19%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chelsea xG (home)1.82

Brighton xG (away)1.56

Average Possession

57.18% Possession 52.55%

Team Comparison Chelsea vs Brighton

86.29% Pass accuracy 84.32%

520.5 Passes per match 465.89

0.11 Goals prevented -0.01

11.47 Fouls committed 11.53

3.03 Goalkeeper saves 2.54

1.76 Offsides 1.21

15.39 Tackles per match 18.55

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Chelsea vs Brighton prediction analysis

Review Chelsea vs Brighton with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights