Prediction Analysis: Chelsea vs Brighton
Chelsea vs Brighton prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-08-30
13:00
Chelsea
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Brighton
Away
Prediction Summary
1
40%
X
26%
2
34%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Chelsea (Home)
Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate58%
Brighton (Away)
Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Chelsea
LWDLL
Brighton
LLWLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
74%
47%
+1.5
37%
11%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
58%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Low.
Chelsea averages 1.37 goals scored at home, while Brighton averages 1.16 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
40%
Draw
26%
Away Win
34%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Chelsea(A)
0 - 3
Brighton
Away
Sep 2025
Chelsea
1 - 3
Brighton
Away
Feb 2025
Chelsea(A)
0 - 3
Brighton
Away
Feb 2025
Chelsea(A)
1 - 2
Brighton
Away
Sep 2024
Chelsea
4 - 2
Brighton
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Chelsea won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
Chelsea — unbeaten run (home)1
Chelsea — scoring streak (home)2
Brighton — winless run (away)3
Brighton — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Chelsea Win (1)40%
Draw (X)26%
Brighton Win (2)34%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
74%
47%
+1.5
37%
11%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
26%
53%
-1.5
63%
89%
-2.5
95%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Chelsea vs Brighton — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Chelsea — scored (home)1.37
Chelsea — conceded (home)1.32
Brighton — scored (away)1.16
Brighton — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.61
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Chelsea — BTTS matches (home)58%
Brighton — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)55.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Chelsea (home)
Corners for6.8
Corners against3.9
Brighton (away)
Corners for4.8
Corners against5.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Chelsea
11
11
7
7
8
Brighton
11
12
8
15
3
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Chelsea (home)
For2.3
Brighton (away)
For2.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.574%
Under 19.526%
Over 22.561%
Under 22.539%
Over 25.548%
Under 25.552%
Expected total shots25.96
Chelsea
Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.39
On Target Over 3.566%
On Target Over 4.550%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.74
Brighton
Shots Over 9.563%
Shots Over 11.546%
Shots Over 13.531%
Expected shots11.56
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.541%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.21
Shots per Game
Chelsea — total shots (home)15.2
Brighton — total shots (away)12.3
Shots on Target
Chelsea — on target (home)4.2
Brighton — on target (away)4.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Chelsea
Inside the box8.87
Outside the box4.53
Brighton
Inside the box8.66
Outside the box4.37
Player Shots Chelsea
C. Palmer
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
E. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target17%
João Pedro
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target20%
Tyrique George
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
L. Delap
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%
Player Shots Brighton
D. Welbeck
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Hinshelwood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target11%
K. Mitoma
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target8%
P. Groß
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target5%
D. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target9%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Chelsea xG (home)1.75
Brighton xG (away)1.51
Average Possession
57.74%
Possession
54.11%
Team Comparison Chelsea vs Brighton
86.66%
Pass accuracy
83.5%
540.21
Passes per match
476.47
0.06
Goals prevented
0.04
11.05
Fouls committed
11.92
2.79
Goalkeeper saves
2.79
1.76
Offsides
1.68
15.61
Tackles per match
17.76
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Chelsea vs Brighton prediction analysis
Review Chelsea vs Brighton with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights