What markets are included in the Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Chelsea vs Newcastle

Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2024-10-27 13:00

Chelsea

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

49%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Newcastle

Away

Prediction Summary

40%

26%

34%

Under 2.5

51%

BTTS Yes

53%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Chelsea (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84

Goals conceded / match0.95

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate63%

Newcastle (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47

Goals conceded / match1.42

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Chelsea

WWLWW

Newcastle

LLWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 79%

53% +1.5 42%

26% +2.5 21%

11% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

63% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Chelsea averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Newcastle averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength

53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

40%

Draw

26%

Away Win

34%

Over 2.5

49%

BTTS Yes

53%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Chelsea 0 - 1 Newcastle Away

Dec 2025 Chelsea(A) 2 - 2 Newcastle Draw

May 2025 Chelsea(A) 0 - 2 Newcastle Away

Oct 2024 Chelsea(A) 0 - 2 Newcastle Away

Oct 2024 Chelsea 2 - 1 Newcastle Home

In the last 5 meetings, Chelsea won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Chelsea — unbeaten run (home)10

Chelsea — scoring streak (home)18

Newcastle — winless run (away)3

Newcastle — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Chelsea Win (1)40%

Draw (X)26%

Newcastle Win (2)34%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 79%

53% +1.5 42%

26% +2.5 21%

11% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 21%

47% -1.5 58%

74% -2.5 79%

89% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

Chelsea vs Newcastle — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Chelsea — scored (home)1.84

Chelsea — conceded (home)0.95

Newcastle — scored (away)1.47

Newcastle — conceded (away)1.42

Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%

No47%

Rate per Team

Chelsea — BTTS matches (home)63%

Newcastle — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%

Under 4.55%

Over 5.590%

Under 5.510%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.566%

Under 7.534%

Over 8.563%

Under 8.537%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.545%

Under 10.555%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Chelsea (home)

Corners for6.5

Corners against3.4

Newcastle (away)

Corners for5.3

Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Chelsea

12 9 10 9 11

Newcastle

13 5 10 17 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.584%

Under 1.516%

Over 2.571%

Under 2.529%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Chelsea (home)

For2.8

Newcastle (away)

For1.5

Shots per Game

Chelsea — total shots (home)17.8

Newcastle — total shots (away)12.1

Shots on Target

Chelsea — on target (home)6.7

Newcastle — on target (away)4.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Chelsea

Inside the box10.37

Outside the box5.29

Newcastle

Inside the box9.89

Outside the box3.92

Player Shots Chelsea

N. Madueke

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

C. Palmer

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target81%

+1.5 On Target30%

N. Jackson

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target33%

T. Chalobah

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target15%

+1.5 On Target8%

Pedro Neto

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Newcastle

S. Botman

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target13%

A. Isak

Shots on Target/Game1.9

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target38%

J. Murphy

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target31%

+1.5 On Target11%

H. Barnes

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target15%

Joelinton

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chelsea xG (home)1.82

Newcastle xG (away)1.72

Average Possession

57.18% Possession 51.13%

Team Comparison Chelsea vs Newcastle

86.29% Pass accuracy 82.45%

520.5 Passes per match 451.79

0.11 Goals prevented -0.16

11.47 Fouls committed 10.37

3.03 Goalkeeper saves 3.08

1.76 Offsides 2.15

15.39 Tackles per match 15.87

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction analysis

Review Chelsea vs Newcastle with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights