Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2024-10-06 13:00
Chelsea
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Nottingham Forest
Away

Prediction Summary

1
30%
X
26%
2
45%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Chelsea (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate63%

Nottingham Forest (Away)

Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Chelsea
WWLWW
Nottingham Forest
LWDDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 84%
53% +1.5 53%
26% +2.5 26%
11% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
63% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Chelsea averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Nottingham Forest averages 1.68 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
30%
Draw
26%
Away Win
45%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Chelsea 1 - 3 Nottingham Forest Away
Oct 2025 Chelsea(A) 3 - 0 Nottingham Forest Home
May 2025 Chelsea(A) 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest Home
Oct 2024 Chelsea 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest Draw
May 2024 Chelsea(A) 3 - 2 Nottingham Forest Home

In the last 5 meetings, Chelsea won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Chelsea — unbeaten run (home)10
Chelsea — scoring streak (home)18
Nottingham Forest — winless run (away)0
Nottingham Forest — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Chelsea Win (1)30%
Draw (X)26%
Nottingham Forest Win (2)45%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 84%
53% +1.5 53%
26% +2.5 26%
11% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 16%
47% -1.5 47%
74% -2.5 74%
89% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Chelsea — scored (home)1.84
Chelsea — conceded (home)0.95
Nottingham Forest — scored (away)1.68
Nottingham Forest — conceded (away)1.58
Model expected combined goals2.67

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Chelsea — BTTS matches (home)63%
Nottingham Forest — BTTS matches (away)58%
Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.595%
Under 6.55%
Over 7.584%
Under 7.516%
Over 8.571%
Under 8.529%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Chelsea (home)

Corners for6.5
Corners against3.4

Nottingham Forest (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against6.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Chelsea
12 9 10 9 11
Nottingham Forest
9 11 8 15 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Chelsea (home)

For2.8

Nottingham Forest (away)

For3.3

Shots per Game

Chelsea — total shots (home)17.8
Nottingham Forest — total shots (away)12.1

Shots on Target

Chelsea — on target (home)6.7
Nottingham Forest — on target (away)4.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Chelsea

Inside the box10.37
Outside the box5.29

Nottingham Forest

Inside the box7.74
Outside the box4.45

Player Shots Chelsea

N. Madueke
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
C. Palmer
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target30%
N. Jackson
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target33%
T. Chalobah
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
Pedro Neto
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Nottingham Forest

C. Hudson-Odoi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target16%
A. Elanga
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target16%
C. Wood
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target19%
R. Sosa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Gibbs-White
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chelsea xG (home)1.82
Nottingham Forest xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

57.18% Possession 40.89%

Team Comparison Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

86.29% Pass accuracy 77.79%
520.5 Passes per match 340.53
0.11 Goals prevented 0.01
11.47 Fouls committed 10.55
3.03 Goalkeeper saves 3.16
1.76 Offsides 2.39
15.39 Tackles per match 18.37

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest prediction analysis

Review Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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