Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Chicago Fire vs Charlotte

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-08-02 00:30
Chicago Fire
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
59%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Charlotte
Away

Prediction Summary

1
41%
X
25%
2
35%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
59%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Chicago Fire (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate63%

Charlotte (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Chicago Fire
LLLDW
Charlotte
WDLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 79%
53% +1.5 42%
21% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
63% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 59%. Model confidence is Medium.

Chicago Fire averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Charlotte averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
41%
Draw
25%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
59%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jun 2025 Chicago Fire 3 - 2 Charlotte Home
May 2025 Chicago Fire(A) 4 - 1 Charlotte Home
Oct 2024 Chicago Fire(A) 3 - 4 Charlotte Away
May 2024 Chicago Fire 0 - 1 Charlotte Away
Oct 2023 Chicago Fire 0 - 2 Charlotte Away

In the last 5 meetings, Chicago Fire won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Chicago Fire — unbeaten run (home)0
Chicago Fire — scoring streak (home)0
Charlotte — winless run (away)0
Charlotte — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Chicago Fire Win (1)41%
Draw (X)25%
Charlotte Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 79%
53% +1.5 42%
21% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 21%
47% -1.5 58%
79% -2.5 95%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Chicago Fire — scored (home)1.47
Chicago Fire — conceded (home)1.53
Charlotte — scored (away)1.26
Charlotte — conceded (away)1.58
Model expected combined goals2.92

Both Teams To Score

Yes59%
No41%

Rate per Team

Chicago Fire — BTTS matches (home)63%
Charlotte — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)58%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Chicago Fire (home)

Corners for5.2
Corners against4.1

Charlotte (away)

Corners for4.3
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Chicago Fire
6 12 11 12 3
Charlotte
15 8 5 9 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Chicago Fire (home)

For1.9

Charlotte (away)

For2.1

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.560%
Under 22.540%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.17

Chicago Fire

Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.569%
Shots Over 13.553%
Expected shots14.39
On Target Over 3.573%
On Target Over 4.557%
On Target Over 5.541%
Expected on target5.17

Charlotte

Shots Over 9.559%
Shots Over 11.540%
Shots Over 13.524%
Expected shots10.78
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.535%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.91

Shots per Game

Chicago Fire — total shots (home)14.9
Charlotte — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Chicago Fire — on target (home)5.4
Charlotte — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Chicago Fire

Inside the box8.65
Outside the box5.19

Charlotte

Inside the box7.54
Outside the box3.03

Player Shots Chicago Fire

T. Barlow
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target4%
H. Cuypers
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target39%
J. Bamba
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
B. Gutiérrez
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
J. Elliott
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Charlotte

Pep Biel
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
P. Agyemang
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
W. Zaha
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Abada
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target9%
I. Toklomati Giorno
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chicago Fire xG (home)1.68
Charlotte xG (away)1.46

Average Possession

49.57% Possession 47.97%

Team Comparison Chicago Fire vs Charlotte

84.18% Pass accuracy 84.21%
463.38 Passes per match 450.92
-0.06 Goals prevented 0.1
12 Fouls committed 11.14
2.86 Goalkeeper saves 3.97
1.71 Offsides 1.44
15.32 Tackles per match 12.78

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte prediction analysis

Review Chicago Fire vs Charlotte with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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