Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Chico vs Once Caldas

Chico vs Once Caldas prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-04-13 01:30
Chico
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Once Caldas
Away

Prediction Summary

1
45%
X
28%
2
27%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Chico (Home)

Goals scored / match0.8
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate40%

Once Caldas (Away)

Goals scored / match0.64
Goals conceded / match1.23
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate41%

Team Form last 5 matches

Chico
LLLWD
Once Caldas
DWDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

60% +0.5 50%
20% +1.5 14%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
40% BTTS 41%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Chico averages 0.8 goals scored at home, while Once Caldas averages 0.64 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
45%
Draw
28%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 2

Sep 2025 Chico(A) 2 - 5 Once Caldas Away
Apr 2025 Chico 0 - 0 Once Caldas Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Chico won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Chico — unbeaten run (home)0
Chico — scoring streak (home)1
Once Caldas — winless run (away)3
Once Caldas — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Chico Win (1)45%
Draw (X)28%
Once Caldas Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

60% +0.5 50%
20% +1.5 14%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

40% -0.5 50%
80% -1.5 86%
100% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Chico vs Once Caldas — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Chico — scored (home)0.8
Chico — conceded (home)1
Once Caldas — scored (away)0.64
Once Caldas — conceded (away)1.23
Model expected combined goals2.27

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Chico — BTTS matches (home)40%
Once Caldas — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)40.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.593%
Under 4.57%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.577%
Under 6.523%
Over 7.567%
Under 7.533%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Chico (home)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.5

Once Caldas (away)

Corners for3.2
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Chico
5 4 7 10 2
Once Caldas
7 14 14 5 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.595%
Under 2.55%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Chico (home)

For2.7

Once Caldas (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Chico — total shots (home)11.9
Once Caldas — total shots (away)10.2

Shots on Target

Chico — on target (home)3.5
Once Caldas — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Chico

Inside the box4.88
Outside the box5.28

Once Caldas

Inside the box6.02
Outside the box6.42

Player Shots Chico

Hassan Vergara
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
J. Molina
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target27%
E. Banguero
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Arango
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Bocanegra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Once Caldas

H. Dorrego
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
D. Moreno
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target23%
J. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. Barrios
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
M. García
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target19%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Chico xG (home)1.02
Once Caldas xG (away)0.94

Average Possession

47.6% Possession 49.73%

Team Comparison Chico vs Once Caldas

77.73% Pass accuracy 81.02%
328.68 Passes per match 358.62
0 Goals prevented 0
11.03 Fouls committed 11.36
3.05 Goalkeeper saves 3.64
1.68 Offsides 2.43
10.13 Tackles per match 12.47

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Chico vs Once Caldas prediction analysis

Review Chico vs Once Caldas with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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