Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Como vs AS Roma

Como vs AS Roma prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-10-11 16:30
Como
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
AS Roma
Away

Prediction Summary

1
46%
X
26%
2
28%
+2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Como (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate47%

AS Roma (Away)

Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Como
WWWDW
AS Roma
WWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 79%
47% +1.5 47%
26% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 0%
11% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

Como averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while AS Roma averages 1.37 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
46%
Draw
26%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 4

Mar 2026 Como 2 - 1 AS Roma Home
Dec 2025 Como(A) 0 - 1 AS Roma Away
Mar 2025 Como(A) 1 - 2 AS Roma Away
Dec 2024 Como 2 - 0 AS Roma Home

In the last 4 meetings, Como won 2, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Como — unbeaten run (home)2
Como — scoring streak (home)1
AS Roma — winless run (away)0
AS Roma — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Como Win (1)46%
Draw (X)26%
AS Roma Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 79%
47% +1.5 47%
26% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 0%
11% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 21%
53% -1.5 53%
74% -2.5 89%
89% -3.5 100%
89% -4.5 100%

Como vs AS Roma — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Como — scored (home)1.84
Como — conceded (home)0.79
AS Roma — scored (away)1.37
AS Roma — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.55

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Como — BTTS matches (home)47%
AS Roma — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Como (home)

Corners for5.0
Corners against2.1

AS Roma (away)

Corners for4.6
Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Como
5 5 14 17 6
AS Roma
14 9 9 11 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Como (home)

For1.9

AS Roma (away)

For2.0

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.554%
Under 22.546%
Over 25.541%
Under 25.559%
Expected total shots24.27

Como

Shots Over 9.579%
Shots Over 11.565%
Shots Over 13.550%
Expected shots14.04
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.538%
Expected on target4.97

AS Roma

Shots Over 9.553%
Shots Over 11.535%
Shots Over 13.521%
Expected shots10.23
On Target Over 3.548%
On Target Over 4.531%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.65

Shots per Game

Como — total shots (home)16.7
AS Roma — total shots (away)11.2

Shots on Target

Como — on target (home)6.3
AS Roma — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Como

Inside the box9.53
Outside the box4.92

AS Roma

Inside the box9.74
Outside the box3.5

Player Shots Como

N. Paz
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target34%
T. Douvikas
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
Assane Diao
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. Addai
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. da Cunha
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots AS Roma

D. Malen
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target89%
+1.5 On Target56%
E. Ferguson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
P. Dybala
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Soulé
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target9%
L. Pellegrini
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Como xG (home)1.63
AS Roma xG (away)1.45

Average Possession

61.61% Possession 56.29%

Team Comparison Como vs AS Roma

87.05% Pass accuracy 83.32%
527.13 Passes per match 487.97
0.09 Goals prevented -0.02
13.29 Fouls committed 13.76
2.32 Goalkeeper saves 2.82
1.23 Offsides 1.68
16.42 Tackles per match 15.11

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Como vs AS Roma prediction analysis

Review Como vs AS Roma with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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