Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Como vs Cagliari

Como vs Cagliari prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-10 13:00
Como
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Cagliari
Away

Prediction Summary

1
44%
X
26%
2
30%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Como (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate68%

Cagliari (Away)

Goals scored / match0.84
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Como
LDWWW
Cagliari
LWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 58%
37% +1.5 21%
16% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
68% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Como averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Cagliari averages 0.84 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
44%
Draw
26%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Como(A) 2 - 1 Cagliari Home
Nov 2025 Como 0 - 0 Cagliari Draw
May 2025 Como 3 - 1 Cagliari Home
Aug 2024 Como(A) 1 - 1 Cagliari Draw
Jan 2023 Como(A) 0 - 2 Cagliari Away

In the last 5 meetings, Como won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Como — unbeaten run (home)0
Como — scoring streak (home)0
Cagliari — winless run (away)2
Cagliari — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Como Win (1)44%
Draw (X)26%
Cagliari Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 58%
37% +1.5 21%
16% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 42%
63% -1.5 79%
84% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Como vs Cagliari — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Como — scored (home)1.47
Como — conceded (home)1.37
Cagliari — scored (away)0.84
Cagliari — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.53

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Como — BTTS matches (home)68%
Cagliari — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.579%
Under 5.521%
Over 6.569%
Under 6.531%
Over 7.563%
Under 7.537%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Como (home)

Corners for5.0
Corners against3.5

Cagliari (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Como
9 10 6 10 5
Cagliari
5 9 6 16 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Como (home)

For2.1

Cagliari (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Como — total shots (home)14.7
Cagliari — total shots (away)8.7

Shots on Target

Como — on target (home)5.2
Cagliari — on target (away)2.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Como

Inside the box8.68
Outside the box5.03

Cagliari

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box3.39

Player Shots Como

J. Ikoné
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target15%
N. Paz
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target20%
Assane Diao
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
P. Cutrone
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target18%
A. Dossena
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Cagliari

R. Piccoli
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target19%
G. Gaetano
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target7%
G. Lapadula
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target8%
N. Viola
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target4%
G. Zappa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Como xG (home)1.18
Cagliari xG (away)1.13

Average Possession

54.79% Possession 44.76%

Team Comparison Como vs Cagliari

84.45% Pass accuracy 78.68%
464.71 Passes per match 370.08
-0.05 Goals prevented -0.03
13.24 Fouls committed 13.16
2.47 Goalkeeper saves 2.61
1.81 Offsides 1.76
17.45 Tackles per match 14.18

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Como vs Cagliari prediction analysis

Review Como vs Cagliari with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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