Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Como vs Parma

Como vs Parma prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-09-13 16:30
Como
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
37%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Parma
Away

Prediction Summary

1
55%
X
27%
2
18%
+2.5 Goals
37%
BTTS
39%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Como (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate47%

Parma (Away)

Goals scored / match0.63
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate32%

Team Form last 5 matches

Como
WWWDW
Parma
WLLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 53%
47% +1.5 11%
26% +2.5 0%
11% +3.5 0%
11% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 32%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Como averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Parma averages 0.63 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
55%
Draw
27%
Away Win
18%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS Yes
39%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Como 1 - 0 Parma Home
Oct 2025 Como(A) 0 - 0 Parma Draw
May 2025 Como(A) 1 - 0 Parma Home
Oct 2024 Como 1 - 1 Parma Draw
Feb 2024 Como 1 - 1 Parma Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Como won 2, drew 3 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Como — unbeaten run (home)2
Como — scoring streak (home)1
Parma — winless run (away)2
Parma — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Como Win (1)55%
Draw (X)27%
Parma Win (2)18%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 53%
47% +1.5 11%
26% +2.5 0%
11% +3.5 0%
11% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 47%
53% -1.5 89%
74% -2.5 100%
89% -3.5 100%
89% -4.5 100%

Como vs Parma — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Como — scored (home)1.84
Como — conceded (home)0.79
Parma — scored (away)0.63
Parma — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.18

Both Teams To Score

Yes39%
No61%

Rate per Team

Como — BTTS matches (home)47%
Parma — BTTS matches (away)32%
Combined (simple average)39.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Como (home)

Corners for5.0
Corners against2.1

Parma (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Como
5 5 14 17 6
Parma
11 11 9 17 2

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Como (home)

For1.9

Parma (away)

For1.6

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.569%
Under 19.531%
Over 22.555%
Under 22.545%
Over 25.541%
Under 25.559%
Expected total shots24.42

Como

Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.571%
Shots Over 13.557%
Expected shots15.11
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.538%
Expected on target4.97

Parma

Shots Over 9.544%
Shots Over 11.527%
Shots Over 13.515%
Expected shots9.31
On Target Over 3.538%
On Target Over 4.522%
On Target Over 5.512%
Expected on target3.14

Shots per Game

Como — total shots (home)16.7
Parma — total shots (away)9.0

Shots on Target

Como — on target (home)6.3
Parma — on target (away)2.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Como

Inside the box9.53
Outside the box4.92

Parma

Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.74

Player Shots Como

N. Paz
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target34%
T. Douvikas
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
Assane Diao
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. Addai
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. da Cunha
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Parma

Mateo Pellegrino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Gabriel Strefezza
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
P. Cutrone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. Ondrejka
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target6%
Adrián Bernabé
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Como xG (home)1.63
Parma xG (away)0.84

Average Possession

61.61% Possession 44%

Team Comparison Como vs Parma

87.05% Pass accuracy 79.66%
527.13 Passes per match 361.58
0.09 Goals prevented 0.07
13.29 Fouls committed 10.87
2.32 Goalkeeper saves 3.03
1.23 Offsides 1.35
16.42 Tackles per match 13.92

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Como vs Parma prediction analysis

Review Como vs Parma with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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