Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Corinthians vs Botafogo

Corinthians vs Botafogo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-30 19:00
Corinthians
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
29%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Botafogo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
37%
X
32%
2
31%
Under 2.5
71%
BTTS No
63%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Corinthians (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate53%

Botafogo (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate21%

Team Form last 5 matches

Corinthians
DLDLW
Botafogo
WDDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 47%
37% +1.5 32%
21% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%
53% BTTS 21%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 29%. Model confidence is High.

Corinthians averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Botafogo averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
71%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
37%
Draw
32%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
29%
BTTS Yes
37%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Corinthians 2 - 2 Botafogo Draw
Jul 2025 Corinthians(A) 1 - 1 Botafogo Draw
Sep 2024 Corinthians(A) 1 - 2 Botafogo Away
Jun 2024 Corinthians 0 - 1 Botafogo Away
Sep 2023 Corinthians 1 - 0 Botafogo Home

In the last 5 meetings, Corinthians won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Corinthians — unbeaten run (home)3
Corinthians — scoring streak (home)3
Botafogo — winless run (away)4
Botafogo — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Corinthians Win (1)37%
Draw (X)32%
Botafogo Win (2)31%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 47%
37% +1.5 32%
21% +2.5 11%
5% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 53%
63% -1.5 68%
79% -2.5 89%
95% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 95%

Corinthians vs Botafogo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Corinthians — scored (home)1.42
Corinthians — conceded (home)0.95
Botafogo — scored (away)1
Botafogo — conceded (away)0.74
Model expected combined goals1.88

Both Teams To Score

Yes37%
No63%

Rate per Team

Corinthians — BTTS matches (home)53%
Botafogo — BTTS matches (away)21%
Combined (simple average)37%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.534%
Under 10.566%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Corinthians (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against4.4

Botafogo (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Corinthians
9 12 12 7 11
Botafogo
12 8 12 8 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Corinthians (home)

For2.4

Botafogo (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Corinthians — total shots (home)13.7
Botafogo — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Corinthians — on target (home)4.2
Botafogo — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Corinthians

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.13

Botafogo

Inside the box9.21
Outside the box5.11

Player Shots Corinthians

Yuri Alberto
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target27%
M. Depay
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target26%
Igor Coronado
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Gustavo Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target9%
Vitinho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Botafogo

Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
Chris Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target15%
Arthur Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Savarino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%
Artur
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Corinthians xG (home)1.31
Botafogo xG (away)1.32

Average Possession

55.74% Possession 51.76%

Team Comparison Corinthians vs Botafogo

84.82% Pass accuracy 85.26%
467.61 Passes per match 454.05
0.03 Goals prevented 0.12
13.95 Fouls committed 14.61
2.43 Goalkeeper saves 2.47
1.79 Offsides 1.36
15.97 Tackles per match 15.24

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Corinthians vs Botafogo prediction analysis

Review Corinthians vs Botafogo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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