Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro

Coritiba vs Cruzeiro prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-07-31 00:30
Coritiba
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Away Win
Pick
Cruzeiro
Probability
63%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-2
Cruzeiro
Away

Prediction Summary

1
17%
X
21%
2
63%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Coritiba (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match3
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate100%

Cruzeiro (Away)

Goals scored / match1.1
Goals conceded / match0.9
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Coritiba
L
Cruzeiro
WLDDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 60%
0% +1.5 35%
0% +2.5 10%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
100% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Away Win with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is Medium.

Coritiba averages 1 goals scored at home, while Cruzeiro averages 1.1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
17%
Draw
21%
Away Win
63%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
53%

Head-to-Head last 4

Nov 2023 Coritiba 1 - 0 Cruzeiro Home
Jul 2023 Coritiba(A) 0 - 0 Cruzeiro Draw
Oct 2021 Coritiba 0 - 3 Cruzeiro Away
Jul 2021 Coritiba(A) 0 - 0 Cruzeiro Draw

In the last 4 meetings, Coritiba won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Coritiba — unbeaten run (home)0
Coritiba — scoring streak (home)1
Cruzeiro — winless run (away)0
Cruzeiro — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Coritiba Win (1)17%
Draw (X)21%
Cruzeiro Win (2)63%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 60%
0% +1.5 35%
0% +2.5 10%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 40%
100% -1.5 65%
100% -2.5 90%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Coritiba vs Cruzeiro — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Coritiba — scored (home)1
Coritiba — conceded (home)3
Cruzeiro — scored (away)1.1
Cruzeiro — conceded (away)0.9
Model expected combined goals3

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%
No47%

Rate per Team

Coritiba — BTTS matches (home)100%
Cruzeiro — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)67.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Coritiba (home)

Corners for—
Corners against—

Cruzeiro (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Cruzeiro
12 13 8 12 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.550%
Under 0.550%
Over 1.548%
Under 1.552%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Coritiba (home)

For—

Cruzeiro (away)

For2.8

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.47

Coritiba

Shots Over 9.582%
Shots Over 11.569%
Shots Over 13.553%
Expected shots14.40
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.62

Cruzeiro

Shots Over 9.569%
Shots Over 11.551%
Shots Over 13.535%
Expected shots12.07
On Target Over 3.555%
On Target Over 4.538%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target4.03

Shots per Game

Coritiba — total shots (home)—
Cruzeiro — total shots (away)12.1

Shots on Target

Coritiba — on target (home)—
Cruzeiro — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Coritiba

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

Cruzeiro

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box5.82

Player Shots Coritiba

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Player Shots Cruzeiro

Kaio Jorge
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target35%
K. Arroyo
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target25%
Matheus Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target20%
Gabriel Barbosa
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Sinisterra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Coritiba xG (home)-
Cruzeiro xG (away)1.27

Average Possession

-% Possession 47.87%

Team Comparison Coritiba vs Cruzeiro

0% Pass accuracy 81.05%
- Passes per match 363.13
- Goals prevented 0.12
- Fouls committed 13.66
- Goalkeeper saves 3.18
- Offsides 1.5
- Tackles per match 16.44

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Coritiba vs Cruzeiro prediction analysis

Review Coritiba vs Cruzeiro with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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