Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Cremonese vs Lecce

Cremonese vs Lecce prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-12-07 11:30
Cremonese
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Lecce
Away

Prediction Summary

1
41%
X
27%
2
33%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Cremonese (Home)

Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate53%

Lecce (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Cremonese
LWWLL
Lecce
WWLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 53%
21% +1.5 21%
11% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

Cremonese averages 0.95 goals scored at home, while Lecce averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
41%
Draw
27%
Away Win
33%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Cremonese(A) 1 - 2 Lecce Away
Dec 2025 Cremonese 2 - 0 Lecce Home
Feb 2023 Cremonese 0 - 2 Lecce Away
Oct 2022 Cremonese(A) 1 - 1 Lecce Draw
Jan 2022 Cremonese(A) 1 - 2 Lecce Away

In the last 5 meetings, Cremonese won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Cremonese — unbeaten run (home)0
Cremonese — scoring streak (home)3
Lecce — winless run (away)0
Lecce — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Cremonese Win (1)41%
Draw (X)27%
Lecce Win (2)33%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 53%
21% +1.5 21%
11% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 47%
79% -1.5 79%
89% -2.5 95%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Cremonese vs Lecce — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Cremonese — scored (home)0.95
Cremonese — conceded (home)1.53
Lecce — scored (away)0.79
Lecce — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Cremonese — BTTS matches (home)53%
Lecce — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.556%
Under 9.544%
Over 10.534%
Under 10.566%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Cremonese (home)

Corners for3.6
Corners against5.1

Lecce (away)

Corners for4.4
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Cremonese
12 6 8 10 6
Lecce
6 7 8 10 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Cremonese (home)

For1.9

Lecce (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Cremonese — total shots (home)10.3
Lecce — total shots (away)9.0

Shots on Target

Cremonese — on target (home)3.7
Lecce — on target (away)2.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Cremonese

Inside the box5.53
Outside the box3.58

Lecce

Inside the box5.68
Outside the box4.13

Player Shots Cremonese

F. Bonazzoli
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target26%
D. Okereke
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Vardy
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target7%
M. Đurić
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Thorsby
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Lecce

W. Cheddira
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Banda
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Berisha
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Kaba
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target7%
N. Štulić
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Cremonese xG (home)0.93
Lecce xG (away)0.82

Average Possession

46.5% Possession 41.61%

Team Comparison Cremonese vs Lecce

77.82% Pass accuracy 74.34%
385.47 Passes per match 321.13
0.17 Goals prevented 0.17
13.53 Fouls committed 12.63
3.68 Goalkeeper saves 2.89
1.73 Offsides 1.35
14.32 Tackles per match 17.68

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Cremonese vs Lecce prediction analysis

Review Cremonese vs Lecce with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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