Prediction Analysis: Criciuma vs Nautico Recife
Criciuma vs Nautico Recife prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie B
2026-07-26
19:00
Criciuma
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Nautico Recife
Away
Prediction Summary
1
65%
X
21%
2
14%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Criciuma (Home)
Goals scored / match1.25
Goals conceded / match0.25
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate25%
Nautico Recife (Away)
Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match2.67
Over 2.5 rate33%
BTTS rate67%
Team Form last 5 matches
Criciuma
WWWWW
Nautico Recife
WLLDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
67%
25%
+1.5
33%
0%
+2.5
33%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
25%
BTTS
67%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Medium.
Criciuma averages 1.25 goals scored at home, while Nautico Recife averages 1.33 goals scored away.
Model Strength
65%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
65%
Draw
21%
Away Win
14%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
Head-to-Head last 2
Oct 2022
Criciuma
2 - 1
Nautico Recife
Home
Jun 2022
Criciuma(A)
1 - 1
Nautico Recife
Draw
In the last 2 meetings, Criciuma won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Criciuma — unbeaten run (home)4
Criciuma — scoring streak (home)4
Nautico Recife — winless run (away)3
Nautico Recife — clean sheets (away, last 3)0 of 3
1X2 Probability model
Criciuma Win (1)65%
Draw (X)21%
Nautico Recife Win (2)14%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
67%
25%
+1.5
33%
0%
+2.5
33%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
33%
75%
-1.5
67%
100%
-2.5
67%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Criciuma vs Nautico Recife — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Criciuma — scored (home)1.25
Criciuma — conceded (home)0.25
Nautico Recife — scored (away)1.33
Nautico Recife — conceded (away)2.67
Model expected combined goals2.75
Both Teams To Score
Yes47%
No53%
Rate per Team
Criciuma — BTTS matches (home)25%
Nautico Recife — BTTS matches (away)67%
Combined (simple average)46%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Criciuma (home)
Corners for4.0
Corners against2.5
Nautico Recife (away)
Corners for6.0
Corners against4.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Criciuma
4
9
6
7
14
Nautico Recife
9
8
11
7
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.588%
Under 0.512%
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Criciuma (home)
For2.8
Nautico Recife (away)
For1.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.580%
Under 19.520%
Over 22.567%
Under 22.533%
Over 25.553%
Under 25.547%
Expected total shots26.84
Criciuma
Shots Over 9.587%
Shots Over 11.575%
Shots Over 13.561%
Expected shots15.45
On Target Over 3.572%
On Target Over 4.556%
On Target Over 5.539%
Expected on target5.05
Nautico Recife
Shots Over 9.564%
Shots Over 11.545%
Shots Over 13.529%
Expected shots11.39
On Target Over 3.541%
On Target Over 4.523%
On Target Over 5.512%
Expected on target3.25
Shots per Game
Criciuma — total shots (home)11.8
Nautico Recife — total shots (away)14.0
Shots on Target
Criciuma — on target (home)4.5
Nautico Recife — on target (away)3.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Criciuma
Inside the box5.25
Outside the box6.25
Nautico Recife
Inside the box9
Outside the box7.83
Player Shots Criciuma
Waguininho
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
R. Otero
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
Fellipe Mateus
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
Willean Lepo
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
Luciano Castán
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Nautico Recife
Derek
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
Victor Andrade
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Kaua Almeida da Costa
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
Dodozinho
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target33%
Luiz Claudio
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Criciuma xG (home)1.02
Nautico Recife xG (away)1.22
Average Possession
49.2%
Possession
61.5%
Team Comparison Criciuma vs Nautico Recife
75%
Pass accuracy
82.38%
322.25
Passes per match
450.67
0.07
Goals prevented
-0.05
13.8
Fouls committed
15
2.6
Goalkeeper saves
3.5
3.4
Offsides
1.83
14
Tackles per match
11.33
League average xG this season is 1.13 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Criciuma vs Nautico Recife prediction analysis
Review Criciuma vs Nautico Recife with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie B.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie B
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights