Prediction Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Botafogo
Cruzeiro vs Botafogo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-07-26
19:00
Cruzeiro
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Cruzeiro
Probability
46%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Botafogo
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
29%
2
25%
Under 2.5
63%
BTTS No
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Cruzeiro (Home)
Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate58%
Botafogo (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate21%
Team Form last 5 matches
Cruzeiro
WLDDW
Botafogo
DWWDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
47%
58%
+1.5
32%
26%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
58%
BTTS
21%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Medium.
Cruzeiro averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Botafogo averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
63%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
29%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
Head-to-Head last 5
Dec 2025
Cruzeiro
2 - 2
Botafogo
Draw
Aug 2025
Cruzeiro(A)
2 - 0
Botafogo
Home
Jul 2024
Cruzeiro(A)
3 - 0
Botafogo
Home
Apr 2024
Cruzeiro
3 - 2
Botafogo
Home
Dec 2023
Cruzeiro(A)
0 - 0
Botafogo
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Cruzeiro won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Cruzeiro — unbeaten run (home)9
Cruzeiro — scoring streak (home)2
Botafogo — winless run (away)4
Botafogo — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Cruzeiro Win (1)46%
Draw (X)29%
Botafogo Win (2)25%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
47%
58%
+1.5
32%
26%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
53%
42%
-1.5
68%
74%
-2.5
89%
89%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
95%
Cruzeiro vs Botafogo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Cruzeiro — scored (home)1.84
Cruzeiro — conceded (home)0.74
Botafogo — scored (away)1
Botafogo — conceded (away)0.74
Model expected combined goals2.16
Both Teams To Score
Yes42%
No58%
Rate per Team
Cruzeiro — BTTS matches (home)58%
Botafogo — BTTS matches (away)21%
Combined (simple average)39.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Cruzeiro (home)
Corners for6.6
Corners against4.6
Botafogo (away)
Corners for4.1
Corners against5.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Cruzeiro
12
13
8
12
12
Botafogo
12
8
4
10
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Cruzeiro (home)
For2.9
Botafogo (away)
For2.3
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.548%
Under 25.552%
Expected total shots25.91
Cruzeiro
Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.569%
Shots Over 13.554%
Expected shots14.52
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.551%
On Target Over 5.535%
Expected on target4.80
Botafogo
Shots Over 9.564%
Shots Over 11.545%
Shots Over 13.529%
Expected shots11.39
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.535%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.91
Shots per Game
Cruzeiro — total shots (home)15.1
Botafogo — total shots (away)12.3
Shots on Target
Cruzeiro — on target (home)5.7
Botafogo — on target (away)3.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Cruzeiro
Inside the box7.76
Outside the box5.82
Botafogo
Inside the box9.21
Outside the box5.11
Player Shots Cruzeiro
Kaio Jorge
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target35%
K. Arroyo
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target25%
Matheus Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target20%
Gabriel Barbosa
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Sinisterra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Botafogo
Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
Chris Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target15%
Arthur Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target14%
Matheus Martins
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target29%
Huguinho
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro xG (home)1.27
Botafogo xG (away)1.32
Average Possession
47.87%
Possession
51.76%
Team Comparison Cruzeiro vs Botafogo
81.05%
Pass accuracy
85.26%
363.13
Passes per match
454.05
0.12
Goals prevented
0.12
13.66
Fouls committed
14.61
3.18
Goalkeeper saves
2.47
1.5
Offsides
1.36
16.44
Tackles per match
15.45
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Cruzeiro vs Botafogo prediction analysis
Review Cruzeiro vs Botafogo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights