Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Internacional

Cruzeiro vs Internacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-08-23 21:30
Cruzeiro
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Internacional
Away

Prediction Summary

1
58%
X
23%
2
19%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Cruzeiro (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate58%

Internacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Cruzeiro
LDDWD
Internacional
WLLDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 63%
58% +1.5 21%
26% +2.5 5%
11% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.

Cruzeiro averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Internacional averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
58%
Draw
23%
Away Win
19%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 Cruzeiro(A) 2 - 1 Internacional Home
Aug 2025 Cruzeiro 2 - 1 Internacional Home
Apr 2025 Cruzeiro(A) 0 - 3 Internacional Away
Aug 2024 Cruzeiro 0 - 0 Internacional Draw
Aug 2024 Cruzeiro(A) 0 - 1 Internacional Away

In the last 5 meetings, Cruzeiro won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Cruzeiro — unbeaten run (home)9
Cruzeiro — scoring streak (home)2
Internacional — winless run (away)2
Internacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Cruzeiro Win (1)58%
Draw (X)23%
Internacional Win (2)19%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 63%
58% +1.5 21%
26% +2.5 5%
11% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 37%
42% -1.5 79%
74% -2.5 95%
89% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Cruzeiro vs Internacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Cruzeiro — scored (home)1.84
Cruzeiro — conceded (home)0.74
Internacional — scored (away)0.89
Internacional — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals2.79

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

Cruzeiro — BTTS matches (home)58%
Internacional — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.589%
Under 6.511%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.569%
Under 8.531%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Cruzeiro (home)

Corners for6.6
Corners against4.6

Internacional (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Cruzeiro
12 12 13 8 12
Internacional
8 5 7 13 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Cruzeiro (home)

For2.9

Internacional (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Cruzeiro — total shots (home)15.1
Internacional — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Cruzeiro — on target (home)5.7
Internacional — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Cruzeiro

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box5.82

Internacional

Inside the box8.08
Outside the box5.5

Player Shots Cruzeiro

Kaio Jorge
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target33%
K. Arroyo
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target25%
Matheus Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target21%
Gabriel Barbosa
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
Christian
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Internacional

J. Carbonero
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target13%
Alan Patrick
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ricardo Mathias
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target23%
Gustavo Prado
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
Tabata
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Cruzeiro xG (home)1.27
Internacional xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

47.87% Possession 51.08%

Team Comparison Cruzeiro vs Internacional

81.05% Pass accuracy 82.63%
363.13 Passes per match 429.03
0.12 Goals prevented -0.13
13.66 Fouls committed 14.89
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 2.61
1.5 Offsides 1.78
16.32 Tackles per match 18.39

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Cruzeiro vs Internacional prediction analysis

Review Cruzeiro vs Internacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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