Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Vitoria

Cruzeiro vs Vitoria prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-01 19:00
Cruzeiro
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Vitoria
Away

Prediction Summary

1
65%
X
22%
2
13%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS No
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Cruzeiro (Home)

Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate58%

Vitoria (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Cruzeiro
LDDWD
Vitoria
WLWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 47%
58% +1.5 16%
26% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Medium.

Cruzeiro averages 1.84 goals scored at home, while Vitoria averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
65%
Draw
22%
Away Win
13%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Cruzeiro 3 - 1 Vitoria Home
Jun 2025 Cruzeiro(A) 0 - 0 Vitoria Draw
Aug 2024 Cruzeiro(A) 2 - 2 Vitoria Draw
Apr 2024 Cruzeiro 3 - 1 Vitoria Home
Nov 2021 Cruzeiro(A) 0 - 3 Vitoria Away

In the last 5 meetings, Cruzeiro won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Cruzeiro — unbeaten run (home)9
Cruzeiro — scoring streak (home)2
Vitoria — winless run (away)1
Vitoria — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Cruzeiro Win (1)65%
Draw (X)22%
Vitoria Win (2)13%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 47%
58% +1.5 16%
26% +2.5 11%
11% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 53%
42% -1.5 84%
74% -2.5 89%
89% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Cruzeiro vs Vitoria — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Cruzeiro — scored (home)1.84
Cruzeiro — conceded (home)0.74
Vitoria — scored (away)0.74
Vitoria — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals2.57

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%
No57%

Rate per Team

Cruzeiro — BTTS matches (home)58%
Vitoria — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Cruzeiro (home)

Corners for6.6
Corners against4.6

Vitoria (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against5.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Cruzeiro
12 12 13 8 12
Vitoria
9 10 12 5 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.589%
Under 2.511%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Cruzeiro (home)

For2.9

Vitoria (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

Cruzeiro — total shots (home)15.1
Vitoria — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

Cruzeiro — on target (home)5.7
Vitoria — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Cruzeiro

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box5.82

Vitoria

Inside the box6.95
Outside the box4.61

Player Shots Cruzeiro

Kaio Jorge
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target33%
K. Arroyo
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target25%
Matheus Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target21%
Gabriel Barbosa
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
Christian
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Vitoria

Wellington Rato
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Matheuzinho
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
Aitor Cantalapiedra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
Renato Kayzer
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target17%
Erick
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Cruzeiro xG (home)1.27
Vitoria xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

47.87% Possession 41.26%

Team Comparison Cruzeiro vs Vitoria

81.05% Pass accuracy 78.61%
363.13 Passes per match 324.47
0.12 Goals prevented -0.04
13.66 Fouls committed 14.61
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 3.92
1.5 Offsides 1.83
16.32 Tackles per match 14.87

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Cruzeiro vs Vitoria prediction analysis

Review Cruzeiro vs Vitoria with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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