Prediction Analysis: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-08-28
19:00
Crystal Palace
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Manchester City
Away
Prediction Summary
1
27%
X
26%
2
46%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Crystal Palace (Home)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%
Manchester City (Away)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
LDLDL
Manchester City
LDWWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
84%
32%
+1.5
42%
5%
+2.5
26%
0%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
53%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.
Crystal Palace averages 1 goals scored at home, while Manchester City averages 1.68 goals scored away.
Model Strength
54%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
27%
Draw
26%
Away Win
46%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Crystal Palace(A)
0 - 3
Manchester City
Away
Dec 2025
Crystal Palace
0 - 3
Manchester City
Away
May 2025
Crystal Palace
1 - 0
Manchester City
Home
Apr 2025
Crystal Palace(A)
2 - 5
Manchester City
Away
Dec 2024
Crystal Palace
2 - 2
Manchester City
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Crystal Palace won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Crystal Palace — unbeaten run (home)0
Crystal Palace — scoring streak (home)2
Manchester City — winless run (away)2
Manchester City — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Crystal Palace Win (1)27%
Draw (X)26%
Manchester City Win (2)46%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
84%
32%
+1.5
42%
5%
+2.5
26%
0%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
16%
68%
-1.5
58%
95%
-2.5
74%
100%
-3.5
89%
100%
-4.5
95%
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Crystal Palace — scored (home)1
Crystal Palace — conceded (home)1.21
Manchester City — scored (away)1.68
Manchester City — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.5
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
Crystal Palace — BTTS matches (home)53%
Manchester City — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Crystal Palace (home)
Corners for4.4
Corners against4.4
Manchester City (away)
Corners for5.7
Corners against4.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Crystal Palace
8
15
13
13
7
Manchester City
14
12
13
13
13
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Crystal Palace (home)
For1.7
Manchester City (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.25
Crystal Palace
Shots Over 9.569%
Shots Over 11.552%
Shots Over 13.537%
Expected shots12.30
On Target Over 3.556%
On Target Over 4.539%
On Target Over 5.525%
Expected on target4.10
Manchester City
Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.557%
Shots Over 13.542%
Expected shots12.95
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.62
Shots per Game
Crystal Palace — total shots (home)13.4
Manchester City — total shots (away)14.9
Shots on Target
Crystal Palace — on target (home)3.9
Manchester City — on target (away)4.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Crystal Palace
Inside the box8.5
Outside the box3.13
Manchester City
Inside the box11.32
Outside the box4.34
Player Shots Crystal Palace
J. Mateta
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target28%
I. Sarr
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. Strand Larsen
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target14%
E. Nketiah
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
D. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target7%
Player Shots Manchester City
E. Haaland
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target46%
A. Semenyo
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target18%
P. Foden
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target15%
T. Reijnders
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Doku
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target13%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Crystal Palace xG (home)1.53
Manchester City xG (away)1.87
Average Possession
45.92%
Possession
60.5%
Team Comparison Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
77.55%
Pass accuracy
88.03%
392.63
Passes per match
586.53
0.28
Goals prevented
-0.1
10.47
Fouls committed
9.68
2.87
Goalkeeper saves
2.42
1.92
Offsides
1.16
18.55
Tackles per match
14.42
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City prediction and preview
Preview Crystal Palace vs Manchester City with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights