Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2026-08-28 19:00
Crystal Palace
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Manchester City
Away

Prediction Summary

1
27%
X
26%
2
46%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Crystal Palace (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Manchester City (Away)

Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Crystal Palace
LDLDL
Manchester City
LDWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 84%
32% +1.5 42%
5% +2.5 26%
0% +3.5 11%
0% +4.5 5%
53% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Crystal Palace averages 1 goals scored at home, while Manchester City averages 1.68 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
27%
Draw
26%
Away Win
46%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Crystal Palace(A) 0 - 3 Manchester City Away
Dec 2025 Crystal Palace 0 - 3 Manchester City Away
May 2025 Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Manchester City Home
Apr 2025 Crystal Palace(A) 2 - 5 Manchester City Away
Dec 2024 Crystal Palace 2 - 2 Manchester City Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Crystal Palace won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Crystal Palace — unbeaten run (home)0
Crystal Palace — scoring streak (home)2
Manchester City — winless run (away)2
Manchester City — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Crystal Palace Win (1)27%
Draw (X)26%
Manchester City Win (2)46%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 84%
32% +1.5 42%
5% +2.5 26%
0% +3.5 11%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 16%
68% -1.5 58%
95% -2.5 74%
100% -3.5 89%
100% -4.5 95%

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Crystal Palace — scored (home)1
Crystal Palace — conceded (home)1.21
Manchester City — scored (away)1.68
Manchester City — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Crystal Palace — BTTS matches (home)53%
Manchester City — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Crystal Palace (home)

Corners for4.4
Corners against4.4

Manchester City (away)

Corners for5.7
Corners against4.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Crystal Palace
8 15 13 13 7
Manchester City
14 12 13 13 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Crystal Palace (home)

For1.7

Manchester City (away)

For2.1

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.25

Crystal Palace

Shots Over 9.569%
Shots Over 11.552%
Shots Over 13.537%
Expected shots12.30
On Target Over 3.556%
On Target Over 4.539%
On Target Over 5.525%
Expected on target4.10

Manchester City

Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.557%
Shots Over 13.542%
Expected shots12.95
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.62

Shots per Game

Crystal Palace — total shots (home)13.4
Manchester City — total shots (away)14.9

Shots on Target

Crystal Palace — on target (home)3.9
Manchester City — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Crystal Palace

Inside the box8.5
Outside the box3.13

Manchester City

Inside the box11.32
Outside the box4.34

Player Shots Crystal Palace

J. Mateta
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target28%
I. Sarr
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. Strand Larsen
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target14%
E. Nketiah
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
D. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Manchester City

E. Haaland
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target46%
A. Semenyo
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target18%
P. Foden
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target15%
T. Reijnders
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Doku
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Crystal Palace xG (home)1.53
Manchester City xG (away)1.87

Average Possession

45.92% Possession 60.5%

Team Comparison Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

77.55% Pass accuracy 88.03%
392.63 Passes per match 586.53
0.28 Goals prevented -0.1
10.47 Fouls committed 9.68
2.87 Goalkeeper saves 2.42
1.92 Offsides 1.16
18.55 Tackles per match 14.42

League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City prediction analysis

Review Crystal Palace vs Manchester City with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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