Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC

Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie B 2026-08-09 21:00
Cuiaba
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Fortaleza EC
Away

Prediction Summary

1
42%
X
28%
2
30%
Under 2.5
61%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Cuiaba (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate33%

Fortaleza EC (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.5
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate100%

Team Form last 5 matches

Cuiaba
LLDWD
Fortaleza EC
LWWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

67% +0.5 100%
33% +1.5 0%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
33% BTTS 100%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Medium.

Cuiaba averages 1 goals scored at home, while Fortaleza EC averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
42%
Draw
28%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
39%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2024 Cuiaba(A) 0 - 1 Fortaleza EC Away
Jun 2024 Cuiaba 5 - 0 Fortaleza EC Home
Nov 2023 Cuiaba 2 - 1 Fortaleza EC Home
Jul 2023 Cuiaba(A) 1 - 0 Fortaleza EC Home
Jul 2022 Cuiaba 0 - 1 Fortaleza EC Away

In the last 5 meetings, Cuiaba won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Cuiaba — unbeaten run (home)0
Cuiaba — scoring streak (home)0
Fortaleza EC — winless run (away)2
Fortaleza EC — clean sheets (away, last 2)0 of 2

1X2 Probability model

Cuiaba Win (1)42%
Draw (X)28%
Fortaleza EC Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

67% +0.5 100%
33% +1.5 0%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

33% -0.5 0%
67% -1.5 100%
100% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Cuiaba — scored (home)1
Cuiaba — conceded (home)1
Fortaleza EC — scored (away)1
Fortaleza EC — conceded (away)1.5
Model expected combined goals2.25

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Cuiaba — BTTS matches (home)33%
Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (away)100%
Combined (simple average)66.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Cuiaba (home)

Corners for7.7
Corners against1.3

Fortaleza EC (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Cuiaba
9 9 13 8 9
Fortaleza EC
14 8 11 13 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Cuiaba (home)

For3.0

Fortaleza EC (away)

For2.0

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.49

Cuiaba

Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.575%
Shots Over 13.560%
Expected shots15.37
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.554%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.93

Fortaleza EC

Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.543%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.12
On Target Over 3.544%
On Target Over 4.526%
On Target Over 5.514%
Expected on target3.41

Shots per Game

Cuiaba — total shots (home)17.0
Fortaleza EC — total shots (away)15.5

Shots on Target

Cuiaba — on target (home)4.7
Fortaleza EC — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Cuiaba

Inside the box8.5
Outside the box6.83

Fortaleza EC

Inside the box10.67
Outside the box6.17

Player Shots Cuiaba

Vinicius Peixoto
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Rodrigo Farofa
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target20%
Marlon
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Calebe
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
Railan
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Fortaleza EC

J. Miritello
Shots on Target/Game2.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target60%
Vitinho
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
Luiz Fernando
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Lucas Crispim
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
Welliton
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Cuiaba xG (home)0.98
Fortaleza EC xG (away)1.46

Average Possession

53.33% Possession 52.17%

Team Comparison Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC

81.75% Pass accuracy 83.67%
384 Passes per match 427
-0.25 Goals prevented 0.14
13 Fouls committed 14.33
1.33 Goalkeeper saves 3.83
1.2 Offsides 2.17
11.17 Tackles per match 12.17

League average xG this season is 1.13 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC prediction analysis

Review Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie B.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie B
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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