Prediction Analysis: D. La Serena vs Union La Calera
D. La Serena vs Union La Calera prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera División
2025-03-16
15:00
D. La Serena
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Union La Calera
Away
Prediction Summary
1
41%
X
27%
2
32%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
D. La Serena (Home)
Goals scored / match1.13
Goals conceded / match1.6
Over 2.5 rate7%
BTTS rate60%
Union La Calera (Away)
Goals scored / match0.67
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate7%
BTTS rate40%
Team Form last 5 matches
D. La Serena
LLLLW
Union La Calera
LLLLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
73%
+0.5
53%
33%
+1.5
7%
7%
+2.5
7%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
60%
BTTS
40%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Medium.
D. La Serena averages 1.13 goals scored at home, while Union La Calera averages 0.67 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
41%
Draw
27%
Away Win
32%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 2
Aug 2025
D. La Serena(A)
1 - 1
Union La Calera
Draw
Mar 2025
D. La Serena
1 - 0
Union La Calera
Home
In the last 2 meetings, D. La Serena won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
D. La Serena — unbeaten run (home)0
D. La Serena — scoring streak (home)0
Union La Calera — winless run (away)8
Union La Calera — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
D. La Serena Win (1)41%
Draw (X)27%
Union La Calera Win (2)32%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
73%
+0.5
53%
33%
+1.5
7%
7%
+2.5
7%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
27%
-0.5
47%
67%
-1.5
93%
93%
-2.5
93%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
D. La Serena vs Union La Calera — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
D. La Serena — scored (home)1.13
D. La Serena — conceded (home)1.6
Union La Calera — scored (away)0.67
Union La Calera — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.47
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
D. La Serena — BTTS matches (home)60%
Union La Calera — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)50%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.597%
Under 5.53%
Over 6.593%
Under 6.57%
Over 7.577%
Under 7.523%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.564%
Under 9.536%
Over 10.553%
Under 10.547%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
D. La Serena (home)
Corners for4.7
Corners against5.7
Union La Calera (away)
Corners for4.2
Corners against6.5
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
D. La Serena
3
13
11
12
7
Union La Calera
7
7
6
8
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5
Yellow Cards per Team
D. La Serena (home)
For2.5
Union La Calera (away)
For2.5
Shots per Game
D. La Serena — total shots (home)15.1
Union La Calera — total shots (away)8.0
Shots on Target
D. La Serena — on target (home)4.0
Union La Calera — on target (away)2.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
D. La Serena
Inside the box6.23
Outside the box6.83
Union La Calera
Inside the box5.57
Outside the box4.23
Player Shots D. La Serena
J. Vargas
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target32%
Á. Henríquez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target20%
G. Jara
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target7%
L. Ovando
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
E. Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots Union La Calera
S. Sáez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target17%
L. Benegas
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ignacio Mesías
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
C. Insaurralde
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Encinas
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
D. La Serena xG (home)1.19
Union La Calera xG (away)1.05
Average Possession
45.97%
Possession
49.03%
Team Comparison D. La Serena vs Union La Calera
76.53%
Pass accuracy
76.73%
341.27
Passes per match
383.4
0
Goals prevented
0
11.8
Fouls committed
11.5
3.07
Goalkeeper saves
2.76
1.55
Offsides
1.74
14.53
Tackles per match
15.45
League average xG this season is 1.45 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
D. La Serena vs Union La Calera prediction analysis
Review D. La Serena vs Union La Calera with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera División.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera División
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights