Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: DC United vs Toronto FC

DC United vs Toronto FC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-07-25 23:30
DC United
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
45%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Toronto FC
Away

Prediction Summary

1
27%
X
26%
2
46%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

DC United (Home)

Goals scored / match0.83
Goals conceded / match1.78
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate56%

Toronto FC (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate55%

Team Form last 5 matches

DC United
WDDLL
Toronto FC
LDDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

56% +0.5 65%
28% +1.5 20%
0% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%
56% BTTS 55%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 45%. Model confidence is Low.

DC United averages 0.83 goals scored at home, while Toronto FC averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
27%
Draw
26%
Away Win
46%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 DC United 2 - 1 Toronto FC Home
May 2025 DC United(A) 0 - 2 Toronto FC Away
Feb 2025 DC United 2 - 2 Toronto FC Draw
Aug 2024 DC United(A) 3 - 1 Toronto FC Home
Jun 2024 DC United 2 - 2 Toronto FC Draw

In the last 5 meetings, DC United won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

DC United — unbeaten run (home)1
DC United — scoring streak (home)1
Toronto FC — winless run (away)11
Toronto FC — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

DC United Win (1)27%
Draw (X)26%
Toronto FC Win (2)46%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

56% +0.5 65%
28% +1.5 20%
0% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

44% -0.5 35%
72% -1.5 80%
100% -2.5 95%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 95%

DC United vs Toronto FC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

DC United — scored (home)0.83
DC United — conceded (home)1.78
Toronto FC — scored (away)1.05
Toronto FC — conceded (away)1.35
Model expected combined goals2.48

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

DC United — BTTS matches (home)56%
Toronto FC — BTTS matches (away)55%
Combined (simple average)55.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

DC United (home)

Corners for4.2
Corners against4.8

Toronto FC (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against5.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

DC United
7 17 13 6 12
Toronto FC
9 10 12 15 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

DC United (home)

For2.8

Toronto FC (away)

For2.1

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.556%
Under 22.544%
Over 25.541%
Under 25.559%
Expected total shots24.33

DC United

Shots Over 9.578%
Shots Over 11.562%
Shots Over 13.546%
Expected shots13.41
On Target Over 3.567%
On Target Over 4.549%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.69

Toronto FC

Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.525%
Expected shots10.91
On Target Over 3.555%
On Target Over 4.537%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.98

Shots per Game

DC United — total shots (home)10.9
Toronto FC — total shots (away)9.1

Shots on Target

DC United — on target (home)3.2
Toronto FC — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

DC United

Inside the box7.09
Outside the box3.82

Toronto FC

Inside the box6.38
Outside the box3.56

Player Shots DC United

C. Benteke
Shots on Target/Game2.1
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target40%
Peglow
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. MacNaughton
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target18%
+1.5 On Target9%
L. Bartlett
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target3%
Gabriel Pirani
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Toronto FC

F. Bernardeschi
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
D. Mihailović
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
T. Corbeanu
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Insigne
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Longstaff
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

DC United xG (home)1.1
Toronto FC xG (away)0.95

Average Possession

45.06% Possession 45.91%

Team Comparison DC United vs Toronto FC

78.15% Pass accuracy 83.13%
398.71 Passes per match 407.47
-0.04 Goals prevented 0.01
13.97 Fouls committed 11.56
3.41 Goalkeeper saves 3.44
1.35 Offsides 1.45
17.35 Tackles per match 17.36

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

DC United vs Toronto FC prediction analysis

Review DC United vs Toronto FC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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