Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ

De Graafschap vs Jong AZ prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eerste Divisie 2026-08-17 18:00
De Graafschap
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
73%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
Jong AZ
Away

Prediction Summary

1
48%
X
21%
2
32%
Over 2.5
73%
BTTS Yes
72%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

De Graafschap (Home)

Goals scored / match2.1
Goals conceded / match1.55
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate75%

Jong AZ (Away)

Goals scored / match1.84
Goals conceded / match2.11
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

De Graafschap
DLLWD
Jong AZ
WLLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 74%
65% +1.5 58%
35% +2.5 42%
10% +3.5 11%
5% +4.5 0%
75% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 73%. Model confidence is High.

De Graafschap averages 2.1 goals scored at home, while Jong AZ averages 1.84 goals scored away.

Model Strength
73%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
48%
Draw
21%
Away Win
32%
Over 2.5
73%
BTTS Yes
72%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 De Graafschap 5 - 0 Jong AZ Home
Sep 2025 De Graafschap(A) 3 - 1 Jong AZ Home
Feb 2025 De Graafschap 5 - 1 Jong AZ Home
Sep 2024 De Graafschap(A) 2 - 2 Jong AZ Draw
Mar 2024 De Graafschap 2 - 1 Jong AZ Home

In the last 5 meetings, De Graafschap won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

De Graafschap — unbeaten run (home)3
De Graafschap — scoring streak (home)18
Jong AZ — winless run (away)2
Jong AZ — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

De Graafschap Win (1)48%
Draw (X)21%
Jong AZ Win (2)32%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 74%
65% +1.5 58%
35% +2.5 42%
10% +3.5 11%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 26%
35% -1.5 42%
65% -2.5 58%
90% -3.5 89%
95% -4.5 100%

De Graafschap vs Jong AZ — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

De Graafschap — scored (home)2.1
De Graafschap — conceded (home)1.55
Jong AZ — scored (away)1.84
Jong AZ — conceded (away)2.11
Model expected combined goals3.8

Both Teams To Score

Yes72%
No28%

Rate per Team

De Graafschap — BTTS matches (home)75%
Jong AZ — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)71.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

De Graafschap (home)

Corners for7.1
Corners against5.0

Jong AZ (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against7.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

De Graafschap
8 11 13 7 13
Jong AZ
8 11 15 16 16

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3

Yellow Cards per Team

De Graafschap (home)

For1.2

Jong AZ (away)

For1.6

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.584%
Under 19.516%
Over 22.573%
Under 22.527%
Over 25.560%
Under 25.540%
Expected total shots28.67

De Graafschap

Shots Over 9.589%
Shots Over 11.579%
Shots Over 13.566%
Expected shots16.29
On Target Over 3.581%
On Target Over 4.568%
On Target Over 5.554%
Expected on target6.05

Jong AZ

Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.554%
Shots Over 13.537%
Expected shots12.38
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.547%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.58

Shots per Game

De Graafschap — total shots (home)20.3
Jong AZ — total shots (away)12.4

Shots on Target

De Graafschap — on target (home)8.2
Jong AZ — on target (away)5.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

De Graafschap

Inside the box11.71
Outside the box5.92

Jong AZ

Inside the box8.21
Outside the box5.87

Player Shots De Graafschap

Nils Eggens
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target46%
R. Niemeijer
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target53%
S. Bultman
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target4%
Bouke Boersma
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target32%
I. El Kadiri
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target27%

Player Shots Jong AZ

A. Oufkir
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
E. Dijkstra
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
K. Inge
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target20%
S. van Duijn
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
B. Kovacs
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target21%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

De Graafschap xG (home)2.08
Jong AZ xG (away)1.29

Average Possession

55.97% Possession 53.58%

Team Comparison De Graafschap vs Jong AZ

83.07% Pass accuracy 84.6%
446.08 Passes per match 456.53
0 Goals prevented 0
11.89 Fouls committed 12.92
3.71 Goalkeeper saves 2.84
1.94 Offsides 1.5
16.37 Tackles per match 17.37

League average xG this season is 1.67 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

De Graafschap vs Jong AZ prediction analysis

Review De Graafschap vs Jong AZ with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eerste Divisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eerste Divisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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