Prediction Analysis: Dender vs Union St. Gilloise
Dender vs Union St. Gilloise prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Jupiler Pro League
2025-09-13
16:15
Dender
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
23%
Confidence
High
Score
0-1
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Prediction Summary
1
16%
X
32%
2
53%
Under 2.5
77%
BTTS No
73%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Dender (Home)
Goals scored / match0.84
Goals conceded / match1.84
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate58%
Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Goals scored / match1.15
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate55%
Team Form last 5 matches
Dender
DLLWL
Union St. Gilloise
WDLWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
65%
21%
+1.5
25%
0%
+2.5
20%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
58%
BTTS
55%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 23%. Model confidence is High.
Dender averages 0.84 goals scored at home, while Union St. Gilloise averages 1.15 goals scored away.
Model Strength
77%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
16%
Draw
32%
Away Win
53%
Over 2.5
23%
BTTS Yes
27%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Dender(A)
0 - 2
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Jan 2026
Dender
0 - 2
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Sep 2025
Dender
0 - 1
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Mar 2025
Dender(A)
1 - 4
Union St. Gilloise
Away
Jul 2024
Dender
0 - 0
Union St. Gilloise
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Dender won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
Dender — unbeaten run (home)2
Dender — scoring streak (home)0
Union St. Gilloise — winless run (away)3
Union St. Gilloise — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Dender Win (1)16%
Draw (X)32%
Union St. Gilloise Win (2)53%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
65%
21%
+1.5
25%
0%
+2.5
20%
0%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
35%
79%
-1.5
75%
100%
-2.5
80%
100%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
Dender vs Union St. Gilloise — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Dender — scored (home)0.84
Dender — conceded (home)1.84
Union St. Gilloise — scored (away)1.15
Union St. Gilloise — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals1.67
Both Teams To Score
Yes27%
No73%
Rate per Team
Dender — BTTS matches (home)58%
Union St. Gilloise — BTTS matches (away)55%
Combined (simple average)56.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.569%
Under 7.531%
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.526%
Under 10.574%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Dender (home)
Corners for3.9
Corners against5.0
Union St. Gilloise (away)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Dender
13
9
11
13
10
Union St. Gilloise
10
6
16
13
5
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.590%
Under 0.510%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Dender (home)
For2.1
Union St. Gilloise (away)
For3.1
Shots per Game
Dender — total shots (home)11.4
Union St. Gilloise — total shots (away)14.1
Shots on Target
Dender — on target (home)3.5
Union St. Gilloise — on target (away)4.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Dender
Inside the box7.87
Outside the box3.26
Union St. Gilloise
Inside the box10.98
Outside the box4.2
Player Shots Dender
A. Scheidler
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
B. Nsimba
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target23%
D. Toševski
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
D. Hrnčár
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target17%
F. Ferraro
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Union St. Gilloise
P. David
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target29%
M. Biondic
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%
K. Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target32%
R. Sykes
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Florucz
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target8%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Dender xG (home)1.21
Union St. Gilloise xG (away)1.7
Average Possession
48.03%
Possession
52.1%
Team Comparison Dender vs Union St. Gilloise
75.5%
Pass accuracy
79.8%
390.53
Passes per match
431.95
0.04
Goals prevented
0.07
11.55
Fouls committed
12.1
3.32
Goalkeeper saves
1.85
2.16
Offsides
2.53
18.18
Tackles per match
18.43
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Dender vs Union St. Gilloise prediction analysis
Review Dender vs Union St. Gilloise with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Jupiler Pro League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Jupiler Pro League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights